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Projections for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States

The table below summarizes data and projections presented at this conference by participants from the Government actuary’s offices of these three countries. In each case, the ratio of the projected rate of improvement (reduction) in death rates above age 85 to the rate of improvement rates at lower ages is assumed to be higher than in the past. Where the average annual rate of improvement at ages 85 and over was only about one- half the rate of improvement at ages 65-84 for all three countries over the past 60 to 100 years, this ratio is assumed to be much higher in the future. The ratio for improvement at 85 and over to improvement at 65-84 ranges from 71 percent by the Canadian Government actuary to 100 percent by the U.K. Government actuary, with the U.S. Government actuary at about 86 percent.

The implication of faster relative rates of improvement in mortality at extreme high ages is clear. If this occurs, as assumed by the actuaries in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, then the high death rates at these very advanced ages will diminish at much faster relative rates than in the past, and a substantial decompression of the distribution of deaths by age will result.

0-14

4.0

3.6

3.2

0.7

1.0

1.5

15- 64

2.0

1.5

1.4

0.7

1.0

0.8

65- 84

1.5

1.0

0.8

0.7

1.0

0.7

85+

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.5

1.0

0.6

Total

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.7

Ratio 85+/65-84

0.47

0.60

0.50

Note: U ltimate is for the period roughly 2030-2080

0.71

1.00

0.86

Historical and Projected Annual Reductions in Death Rates: Canada, UK and US

Age

Historical Ave % Reduction

Ultimate Assumed % Reduction

Canada

UK

US

Canada

UK

US

last 60yrs

last 93yrs

last 103yrs

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