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Chart 11 - U.S. Population Survival Curves to 2100 - Male

for Selected Calendar Years (based on Period Tables)

100

Probability o f Survival from Birth to G iven Age

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

1900

1925

1950

1975

2000

2025

2100

2075

2050

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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100

110

Age

The progression of survival curves for men and women in the United States shows substantial compression of mortality across all ages from 1900 to 1950. In this period, the probability of survival to age 40 rose from around 60 percent to over 90 percent. The probability of survival to ages 40 through almost 60 rose by about the same number of percentage points, 30. Between 1950 and 2000, the age at maximum gain in the survival rate (about 20 percentage points) was about 70 for men and 80 for women.

A better sense of the progression of survival in the United States can be seen by observing the ages to which a given percentage of the population survives. Between 1900 and 1950, this age increased by 50 years of age at the 80 percent survival rate, about 15 years at the 50 percent survival rate, and about 8 years at the 20 percent survival rate. This indicates substantial compression of mortality across all ages. However, between 1950 and 2000, increases of 5 to 10 years of age were experienced for survival rates of 80, 50 and 20 percent. Thus, the survival curve, and the distribution of deaths, is seen to have largely shifted to the right for the United States in this period, with relatively little

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