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Chart 13 clearly illustrates the fact that the median age of survival rose far faster between 1900 and 1950 than did the ages for 10 percent and 0.001 percent survival. But between 1950 and 2000, the ages for median survival and the practical omega rose at more nearly the same rate, particularly for women.

Chart 13 - U.S.: Age for 50%, 10% and 1/100,000 Survival Rates by Sex and Calendar Year

120

Historical

Projected

110

100

90

Age

80

70

60

50

Males, Survival Rate of 0.5 Males, Survival Rate of 0.1 Males, Survival Rate of 0.00001 Females, Survival Rate of 0.5 Females, Survival Rate of 0.1 Females, Survival Rate of 0.00001

40 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Ye ar

For the projections developed for the U.S. Trustees Reports, the practical omega in fact rises somewhat more between 2000 and 2100, than the ages at median and 10 percent survival. As suggested earlier, this is consistent with the prospect of going beyond a shifting of the survival curve to the right (as roughly occurred between 1950 and 2000) to a scenario in which the distribution of deaths by age will actually stretch to the right, with omega rising faster than the median or 10 percent survival ages. Contrary to experience of the last century where a compression of the distribution of deaths by age generally occurred, this projection suggests that the distribution will decompress and expand in the future. Whether this in fact will occur can only be a point of speculation at this time.

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