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Ian Plimer’s ‘Heaven + Earth’ — Checking the Claims - page 12 / 64

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of the underlying sediments. Reference 1224 begins The Greenland Ice Sheet flows out- ward from its interior through a combination of internal deformation and basal sliding, . . . . By referring to internal deformation these two papers are acknowledging ‘creep’ in more technical terms.

52. p. 277: The initial analysis of the ostok ice core used samples spaced at intervals of h u n d r e d s o f y e a r s . T h e i n i t i a l c o n c l u s i o n s w e r e t h a t h i g h C O 2 i n t h e a t m o s p h e r e l e d t high temperatures. This is untrue. The initial conclusions over 20 years ago were that the cycles were initiated by orbital changes with changes in CO2 having a consequent amplifying role. In the relevant paper, the abstract (quoted in full in the discussion below o o n t h e V o s t o k c o r e , s e e p a g e 4 8 ) s a y s C O 2 c h a n g e s h a v e h a d a n i m p o r t a n t c l i m a t i c r o .... in amplifying the relatively weak orbital forcing. l e

53. p. 281: The good news is that alpine valley glaciers are not retreating. Measurements of retreats and advances from glaciers in the period 1946–1995 for 246 glaciers show that there is no sign of any recent global trend towards increased glacier melting.1441 The second sentence does not follow from the first: reference 1441 does find that glaciers are retreating, but fails to find evidence of an increased rate of retreat — [TL].

54. p. 287, figure 29:

graph that claims to be area of global sea ice with total area of

ntarctic sea ice (upper curve) and rctic sea ice variations (lower graph) shows negative values for the arctic. In reality, the curve seems to be taken from the site: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM GES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

This identifies the lower curve as daily global sea ice anomaly and not variations (lower graph).

rctic sea ice

5 5 . p . 2 9 3 : I f h u m a n s b u r n e d a l l t h e f o s s i l f u e l s o n E a r t h , t h e a t m o s p h e r i c C O 2 c o n t e n t w o u l not even double — contradicts page 325: The total amount of carbon in known fossil fuel d c o u l d o n l y p r o d u c e 1 1 t i m e s t h e a m o u n t o f C O 2 i n t h e a t m o s p h e r e . T h i s i s s u e c o m down to time-scales, see item 60 — [DK]. e s

56.

p. 297 (also on p. 294):

El Nin˜o events are not factored into models of future climate.

This is untrue.

In the WG1

R4 report, figure 8.13 shows the performance of a range

of the climate models in simulating the statistical characteristics of El Ni˜no. Since the El Ni˜no is recognised as part of the chaotic behaviour of the climate system (in spite of Plimer’s claim, item 111, that the IPCC denies this) the sequence of individual El Ni˜no events is unpredictable and the relevant test is of the intensity and frequency distribution

  • [DK].

57. p. 303: In the three years before the flooding associated with hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in ugust 2005, the city and surrounding area had undergone rapid subsid- ence of about one metre. There is no reference associated with this claim. However, when the claim is repeated on page 409 a reference is cited, but the subsidence reported in that reference represents an average of 16 8 ± 7 5 mm over the three years — see item 84.

58.

p. 312:

l Gore’s Oscar winning movie predicted that sea level would increase by 6

metres in the near future Gore does not put a date on when a 20 foot rise would happen

12

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