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Ian Plimer’s ‘Heaven + Earth’ — Checking the Claims - page 25 / 64

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  • 121.

    p. 488: the IPCC models just don’t do clouds — false — see item 68.

  • 122.

    pp. 489–493: Choosing to end with a summary from someone (Viscount Monckton) who is not a scientist is a strange choice. Some of the points [items 123, 126] are particularly questionable. Plimer’s text does not indicate whether the references 2281 to 2311 cited in support of the various assertions are in Monckton’s original or whether they represent and addition by Plimer.

123. p. 490: present temperature is .. up to 3C below the Minoan, Roman and Medieval

warmings2282 2283

. The cited references (2282 is for Vostok ice core data and 2283 is the

1990 IPCC report) do not support this claim of up to 3C. The Vostok paper does not refer to the MWP and the IPCC report has only a schematic [figure 7.1] with no units on the temperature scale.

124. p. 490: Plimer (quoting Monckton) asserts that the world was only 7C warmer with 20 times the amount of atmospheric CO2. This give impression that the effect of CO2 on cli- mate is small, but ignores the logarithmic dependence. This dependence has been known

since

rrhenius, acknowledged by Plimer on p. 338 (with the consequent incremental

changes illustrated in figure 50) and often cited by greenhouse pseudo-sceptics such as Bob Carter as a reason for not worrying. If taken at face value, this assertion would im- ply a climate sensitivity of 1.6 degrees — just over half Hansen’s estimate and below the lower end of the IPCC range, but still not insignificant. This can be easily checked by

typing = 7.0*log(2.0)/log(20.0) into a spreadsheet. 125. p. 490: The January 2007–January 2008 fall was the steepest since 1880.2298

where foot-

note 2298 reads GISS, Hadle , NCDC, RSS, U H: all 2008. If the steepest is taken as the largest drop over a 12-month period, then Plimer’s statement is false. In the Hadley record, larger decreases over 12 months occur from Dec. 1891 to Dec. 1892 [0.647C],

ug. 1945 to JG].

ug. 1946 [0.639C] and Feb. 1973 to Feb. 1974 [0.681C]

  • [thanks to

126. pp. 491–492: Sea level may rise by 1 foot to 2100, not 20ft as Gore claims.

variant on

the incorrect claim made on page 312, see item 58. Gore does not put a date on when a 20 foot rise would happen (nor specify what circumstances). This omission was noted by the judge in the UK court case over Gore’s film and book, a case in which Monckton was involved. 31

Cherry picking

Cherry-picking is the common term of selective use of data to achieve a pre-intended result (or for comparable selective citing of references). The distinction between when a reference is being ‘cherry-picked’ and when it is being outright misrepresented is of course somewhat arbitrary.

Various forms of cherry picking include:

31The judgement is at http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/

dmin/2007/2288.html.

s with item 58, in ver-

sions prior to 2.1, before I rechecked the wording, the comment here about the judgement was noted as my recol-

lection.

s noted previously, version 2.1 gave the URL incorrectly.

25

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