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Ian Plimer’s ‘Heaven + Earth’ — Checking the Claims - page 9 / 64





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In reality, the only reconstruction in the 1996 report appears to be the Bradley estimates (figure 10 in the technical summary, reappearing with thermometer measurements su- perimposed as figure 3.20, page 175 in WG1 S R) which only went back to 1400 (i.e. after Plimer’s definition of the end of the MWP). (Figure 3.21 shows proxies without any temperature relation and with poor coherence around the time of the MWP). Thus the MWP was not in the 1996 report to be ‘expunged’ in 2001. The ‘reappearance’ in 2007 is to have multiple reconstructions, none of which show a MWP even 1C warmer than the second half of the twentieth century, let alone the 2C that Plimer claims. The LI can be seen in all 3 reports, with most reconstructions suggesting about 0.5C below mid 20th century levels. In the 2007 report, a small number of reconstructions suggest LI temperatures nearer to 1C cooler and MWP a few tenths of a degree cooler. (Note that all this refers to the northern hemisphere).

33. p. 98: The GISS director398 claimed that nine of the ten warmest years in history have occurred since 1995, . . . Since reference 398 is a paper published in 1999, the misrepre- sentation is obvious.


p. 99: Following soon after the previous passage . . . N S had to reverse its position . . . . N S now states that the top four years of high temperatures are from the 1930s (1934, 1931, 1938 and 1939). The warmest year was 1934. Shortly afterwards: Similarly the UK’s Meteorological office has now confirmed a fall in global temperatures. . . . Nowhere in this discussion of global temperatures is the acknowledgement that interpolation about the high temperatures in the 1930s (the subject of the N S revision to statements about












changes the global numbers by a few thousandths of a degree.

13 revision to the US — [also in TL list].


35. p. 110, figure 12: The lower plot on this figure has a label referring to late twentieth century warming, with a time line in ‘years before present’. However the line ends at about 60 years ago. Maybe Plimer is anticipating the book being in print, without revision in 2060! However the real howler in this plot is that the temperature increase is shown as about 40C. In addition, the relation between upper (10000 years of C-14) and lower (1100 years of temperature) parts of the figure is unclear.


p. 121: the sun rotates around the centre of gravity of the solar system about every 11.1 years. Plimer is confusing rotation (about once every 25 days) with orbital motion around

the center of gravity.

ccording to Einstein’s principle of general relativity, such orbital

motion can have no detectable effect.

There can be tidal effects, but these will have a

frequency given by the difference: 1/25 once every 25 days.

1/(365 × 11 1) per day, i.e. not much less than

37. p. 126, figure 14:

correlation of cycles over less than 2 cycles is of no significance.

Many proposed correlations between climatic variations and sunspot cycles have failed as additional data became available ( .B. Pittock, formerly of CSIRO: personal com- munication based on published work and work in progress). Note that the curves are

13The transcript of the Lateline interview where Ian Plimer tries to evade this issue, can be found on: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2008/s2554129.htm


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