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A b o u t a d o z e n h y p e r v e l o c i t y i m p a c t c r a t e r s t h a t d a t e f r o m t h e H o l o c e n e p e r i o d ( i . e . , s i n c e t h e e n d o f t h e I c e A g e ) h a v e b e e n d i s c o v e r e d t o d a t e . T h e m a j o r i t y o f i m - p a c t s , h o w e v e r , t h a t o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h i s c r u c i a l p e - r i o d o f s o c i e t a l e v o l u t i o n h a v e n o t b e e n d e t e c t e d y e t . A c c o r d i n g t o D r . P e i s e r , T h e 1 4 k n o w n H o l o c e n e i m p a c t c r a t e r s m o s t c e r t a i n l y p a i n t a r a t h e r d e c e p t i v e p i c t u r e o f o u r p a s t . T h e f a c t t h a t n o m a s s i v e i m p a c t c r a t e r d a t i n g t o t h e H o l o c e n e h a s b e e n d e t e c t e d , h a s l e d t o t h e b e l i e f t h a t n o h e m i s p h e r i c o r g l o b a l i m p a c t d i s a s t e r c a n p o s s i b l y h a v e h a p p e n e d . H o w e v e r , t h i s i s a w i d e s r e a d d e l u s i o n . Y e t t h e r e s t i l l i s a r e g r e t t a b l e l a c k o f i n t e r e s t b y t h e s c i e n t i f i c c o m m u n i t y t o s c r u t i n i z e t h e H o l o c e n e f o r m a j o r i m p a c t e v e n t s . T h e w i d e s p r e a d i g n o r a n c e o f s u c h c o s m i c d i s a s t e r s i n h i s t o r i c a l t i m e i s d u e t o t h e l i m i t e d r e s e a r c h f o c u s o n c r a t e r p r o d u c i n g e v e n t s . Y e t o n l y 3 % o f f a t a l i m - p a c t s p r o d u c e a h y p e r v e l o c i t y s u r f a c e c r a t e r o n l a n d , D r . P e i s e r p o i n t s o u t . T u n g u s k a - l i k e i m p a c t s o r S u - p e r - T u n g u s k a s a r e t h u s t a k e n o u t o f t h e e q u a t i o n . D u e t o t h e i r c a t a s t r o p h i c d e t o n a t i o n a b o v e g r o u n d ( o r i n t h e o c e a n s ) , t h e y o f t e n l e a v e n o o b v i o u s f i n g e r p r i n t s b e h i n d . B a s e d o n c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n s t h a t t a k e i n t o a c - c o u n t t h e c u r r e n t f l u x o f n e a r - E a r t h o b j e c t s , a t y p i c a l

1 0 , 0 0 0 - y e a r p e r i o d w i t h a c o n s t a n t h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n o f 5 b i l l i o n c a n e x p e c t t o e x p e r i e n c e : 1 1 0 f a t a l i m p a c t s r e s u l t i n g i n a t o t a l o f 1 3 m i l l i o n f a t a l i t i e s ( a n a v e r a g e o f 1 2 0 , 0 0 0 f a t a l i t i e s p e r e v e n t ) . 3 0 0 T u n g u s k a s t y l e a i r b u r s t s o v e r l a n d , w i t h 8 0 o f t h e s e p r o d u c i n g f a t a l i t i e s ( r o u g h l y o n e f a t a l e v e n t p e r c e n t u r y ) . 1 2 o c e a n i m p a c t s t h a t p r o d u c e t s u n a m i s , w i t h a n a v e r a g e o f 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 f a t a l i t i e s p e r e v e n t . 4 l a n d i m p a c t s , w i t h a n a v e r a g e o f 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 f a t a l i t i e s p e r e v e n t . T h e s e e s t i m a t e s a r e b a s e d o n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e c u r r e n t a s t e r o i d a l a n d c o m e t a r y f l u x w i l l b e c o n - s t a n t i n t i m e a n d q u a n t i t y o v e r t h e n e x t 1 0 , 0 0 0 y e a r s H o w e v e r , t h e r e i s g r o w i n g e v i d e n c e t o s u g g e s t t h a t t h e r e h a v e b e e n p e a k l e v e l s o f m e t e o r i t i c a c t i v i t y i n t h p a s t t h a t d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m t h e c o s m i c c a l m o f t h e l a s t 3 0 0 y e a r s , D r . P e i s e r s t r e s s e s . I n J a n u a r y 2 0 0 0 a U K T a s k F o r c e w a s s e t u p b y L o r S a i n s b u r y , t h e S c i e n c e M i n i s t e r , t o l o o k i n t o t h e w a y i n w h i c h B r i t a i n s h o u l d r e s p o n t o t h e i m p a c t h a z a r a n d h o w i t c a n c o n t r i b u t e t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l e f f o r t s t o p r e v e n t m a j o r i m p a c t s f r o m h a p p e n i n g i n t h e f u t u r e . . d d e

To recognize individuals who have provided long- standing, exceptional service to the simulation community, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) College on Simulation (http://www.informs-cs.org) has established its Distinguished Service Award, which may be given to at most one person annually. Sustained service to the simulation community should extend over a period of 15 to 20 years or longer and be acquitted with distinction. The concept of service for this award does NOT include teaching or research contributions. Areas of volunteer service include, but are not limited to: elected offices in simulation societies; editorial responsibilities for simulation such as department editor, area editor, and editor-in-chief; conference responsibilities involving simulation such as program chair, proceedings editor, general chair, and being a member of the organizing or program committee; appointed positions for simulation-related activities such as serving on committees and being a newsletter editor; andndertakings and actions that promote simulation in the “larger community.”

letter of nomination to the chair of the award selection committee by October 1, 2000. Letters of nomination should identify the nominee’s areas of exceptional service, detailing the activities for which the nominee is believed to deserve this award. The nominee’s current vita must be included with the nomination letter. The individual or individuals making the nomination have the primary responsibility for justifying why the nominee should receive this award. If given, the award will be presented in December at the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference in Orlando, Florida (http://www.wintersim.org). A list of past winners of the award can be found at http://www.informs-cs.org/ dsawin.html.

Nominations should be sent to the Chair of the Selec- tion Committee: W. David Kelton, Department of Quantitative Analysis and Operations Management, College of Business Administration, Lindner Hall, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio 45221- 0130, USA. Email: david.kelton@uc.edu. Phone: 513- 556-0404. Fax: 513-556-5499

Nominations for the Distinguished Service Award can be made by anyone and are made by sending a

This address is sufficient for next-day delivery services.

Call for Nominations for the INFORMS College on Simulation Distinguished Service Award

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SIMULATION MAY 2000

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