X hits on this document

Word document

How party systems Form: The Institutional, Historical and Strategic Foundations of the Post-War ... - page 19 / 42

116 views

0 shares

0 downloads

0 comments

19 / 42

(For a similar analysis, see: Shabad and Slomczynski 2002) Looking at candidates, rather than the more common focus on incumbents, has the advantage of increasing the number of observations and of eliminating the impact of elections. If I were to restrict the analysis to incumbents, both the carry-over rates and electoral experience would be affected not just but individual candidates’ affiliation choices but also the seats gains and losses of their parties. .

Table 4: Electoral Carry-over (a) and Electoral Experience (b)

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

a)

b)

a)

b)

a)

b)

a)

b)

a)

b)

1) CDU/CSU

35%

1.3

52%

1.7

59%

2.1

53%

2.1

52%

2.2

2) SPD

39%

1.4

51%

1.8

54%

3.0

51.%

2.1

44%

2.0

3) FDP

29%

1.3

27%

1.4

41%

1.6

46%

1.9

39%

1.8

4) KPD

23.4%

1.2

Average

31.6%

1.3

43.3%

1.6

51.3%

2.2

50.0%

2.0

45.0%

2.0

5) DP/GDP

9.6%

1.1

23.6%

1.3

40.5%

1.6

20.9%

1.4

6) GB/BHE

5.3%

1.1

29.5%

1.3

7) BP

23.3%

1.2

19.3%

1.2

9.1%

1.2

8) Z/FU

40%

1.4

34.5%

1.5

9) DRP/NPD

7.9%

1.1

8.2%

1.1

25.7%

1.3

21.5%

1.3

31.1%

1.4

Avg. 5-9)

17.2%

1.2

20.2%

1.2

33.1%

1.5

21.5%

1.3

23.9%

1.4

Avg. 1-9)

24.0%

1.2

30.0%

1.4

44.0%

1.9

43.0%

1.9

33.0%

1.6

Legend: 1) Column a): Carry-over; 2) column b) Electoral Experience (average number of electoral candidates of all party candidates; 3) Merged cells indicate party mergers.

Source: (Bundeswahlleiter 1949-69)

Comparing fully licensed with partly licensed parties (e.g. parties 1 to 4 versus 5 to 9), we can notice that the former had significantly higher carry-over and electoral experience rates over the first three electoral cycles. The carry-over for fully licensed was consistently between 12-28% higher than that of partly licensed parties and, by 1957, candidates of fully licensed parties ran on average for 0.4 to 0.7 more elections than their counterparts. There are a few minor departures form this overall pattern. The catholic Zentrum and the regional Bavarian Party (BP) depart from this general pattern by having higher carry-over rates than other partially licensed parties. The Zentrum also was fully licensed in the entire British Zone and the Americans granted the BP in 1948 a license for Bavaria, the only district in which it ran. The low 1957 carry-over for the FDP reflected an important internal schism in which sixteen deputies, including four ministers, left their party in 1956 over policy differences. (Dittberner 1984, 1345-46) In 1953, the

Party Switching3/12/2007p.

Document info
Document views116
Page views116
Page last viewedWed Dec 07 14:27:23 UTC 2016
Pages42
Paragraphs584
Words15215

Comments