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36 / 52

(%)

($billions)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

35.9

8.1

7

1

21

5

–2

3

–9.0

30.3

42.5

27

7

1

3

2

–9

–18.8

23.4

53.2

3

2

10

5

1

2

–3.7

22.4

13.3

5

10

6

2

0

–1

11.1

19.8

10.3

3

–2

10

6

2

1

0.1

18.1

28.9

24

–14

10

4

–5

–2

–11.6

17.8

25.6

25

–1

2

3

–8

–3

6.2

17.7

26.7

12

4

1

2

0

–2

9.3

15.8

14.6

8

–1

8

1

1

–1

0.1

14.8

26.7

18

5

–3

4

–10

0

26.8

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters Worldscope; Bloomberg; annual reports; BCG analysis. Note: n = 61 global companies with a market valuation greater than $7 billion. 1Contribution of each factor shown in percentage points of five-year average annual TSR; apparent discrepancies with TSR totals due to rounding. 2Average annual total shareholder return, 2004–2008. 3As of December 31, 2008. 4Change in EBITDA multiple. 5As of June 30, 2009.

2009 TSR5

Dividend

Share

Net debt

yield

change

change

Consumer Goods

mposition1

1

KT&G

South Korea

2

Nintendo

Japan

3

British American Tobacco

United Kingdom

4

ITC

India

5

UST

United States

6

Imperial Tobacco Group

United Kingdom

7

SABMiller

United Kingdom

8

Reckitt Benckiser Group

United Kingdom

9

Hermes International

France

10

AmBev

Brazil

Sales Growth

TSR Deco

Margin change

Multiple change4

The Consumer Goods Top Ten, 2004–2008

  • #

    Company

Country

TSR

2

Market value3

Value Creation at the Consumer Goods Top Ten Versus Industry Sample, 2004–2008

TSR index (2003=100)

Sales index (2003=100)

400

250

261

200

150

131

100

Total shareholder return

Sales growth

205

300

170

128

131

225

154

323

182

200

100

100

109

100 100

109

104

143

100

127

121

112

122

109

113

EBITDA margin EBITDA/revenue (%)

1

30 28.6 35 30.8 28.9

32.0

32.2

25

20

15

16.3 16.7

16.8

17.1

17.6

10

28.4

17.0

0 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

50 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

5 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

ƒ

Simplified five-year TSR decomposition2

TSR contribution (%) 20 16

10

6

5

4

3

0

  • 0

    1

  • 2

EBITDA multiple Enterprise value/EBITDA (x)

15 12.7

10.8

10

9.9

9.8

8.0

9.2

10.4

11.6

5

1

14.5

12.0

10.0

8.7

4

4.2

4.1

3.7

3

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

Dividend yield3

Dividend/stock price (%)

5

5.0

2

1

3.4

2.4

2.8

2.0

  • 10

Sales

Margin

Multiple

Dividend

growth

change

change

yield

0 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

0 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

Consumer goods top ten

Total sample, n = 61

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters Worldscope; Bloomberg; annual reports; BCG analysis. 1Industry calculation based on aggregate of entire sample. 2Share change and net debt change not shown. 3Industry calculation based on sample average.

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