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42 / 52

(%)

($billions)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

16.9

1.3

14

4

3

2

–2

–5

12.3

15.4

1.0

26

–4

–3

3

0

–7

–5.8

13.9

2.1

4

0

0

2

–2

10

–14.7

12.1

1.9

1

–8

22

5

0

–9

4.1

6.4

0.8

2

–1

–5

1

–1

10

–34.8

5.0

1.6

2

–3

–1

3

0

3

21.3

4.4

1.5

3

–9

7

1

–5

6

–23.9

3.7

1.6

28

–8

7

4

–11

–15

25.4

3.6

1.6

5

–5

–2

2

0

3

22.2

2.0

2.3

8

–1

–6

3

–1

–2

6.2

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters Worldscope; Bloomberg; annual reports; BCG analysis. Note: n = 27 global companies with a market valuation greater than $0.5 billion. 1Contribution of each factor shown in percentage points of five-year average annual TSR; apparent discrepancies with TSR totals due to rounding. 2Average annual total shareholder return, 2004–2008. 3As of December 31, 2008. 4Change in EBITDA multiple. 5As of June 30, 2009.

2009 TSR5

Dividend

Share

Net debt

yield

change

change

Pulp and Paper

mposition1

1

Rock-Tenn

United States

2

Semapa

Portugal

3

Rengo

Japan

4

Klabin

Brazil

5

Mitsubishi Paper

Japan

6

Portucel

Portugal

7

Daio Paper

Japan

8

Suzano Papel e Celulose

Brazil

9

Mayr-MelnhofKarton

Austria

10

Sonoco

United States

Sales Growth

TSR Deco

Margin change

Multiple change4

The Pulp and Paper Top Ten, 2004–2008

  • #

    Company

Country

TSR

2

Market value3

Value Creation at the Pulp and Paper Top Ten Versus Industry Sample, 2004–2008

Total shareholder return

Sales growth

EBITDA margin1

150

100

119

100

100

105

TSR index (2003=100) 250

50

107

200

132

183

125

227

124

143

71

Sales index (2003=100) 150

125

100

100

100

109

103

119

123

105

105

130

101

139

102

EBITDA/revenue (%) 18 16.7

16.2

15.8

16

14

15.2

13.8

13.4

12

16.4

14.1

16.6

14.3

14.5

11.3

0 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

75 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

10 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

ƒ

Simplified five-year TSR decomposition2

TSR contribution (%) 10

6

5

1

0

  • 2

2

  • 2

33

9

8.5

9.2

9.1

9.0

8.7

8

7.9

7.9

8.6

8.8

8.1

EBITDA multiple Enterprise value/EBITDA (x)

10 9.6

7

7.3

1

4

3.9

3.6

3.1

3.4

3

3.1

3.2

Dividend yield3

2

2.7

Dividend/stock price (%) 5

4.2

3.4

2.8

2.0

Sales

Margin

Multiple

Dividend

growth

change

change

yield

  • 5

  • 4

Pulp and paper top ten

6 ’03

Total sample, n = 27

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

1 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

1.6 ’08

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters Worldscope; Bloomberg; annual reports; BCG analysis. 1Industry calculation based on aggregate of entire sample. 2Share change and net debt change not shown. 3Industry calculation based on sample average.

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