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43 / 52

(%)

($billions)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

26.2

5.8

14

2

3

7

0

0

54.7

23.0

69.3

7

7

0

3

3

3

–5.9

21.4

22.8

13

6

2

4

–3

0

0.7

20.7

4.4

20

3

–1

0

–1

–1

–2.1

19.7

22.5

13

4

2

2

1

–1

6.2

17.0

6.9

13

0

2

2

2

–1

5.8

16.5

14.0

14

4

–1

2

0

–2

–2.1

16.5

27.1

18

1

–6

2

0

1

10.6

16.2

7.0

23

6

–18

4

–1

2

0.5

16.0

32.0

13

3

–4

4

0

0

31.4

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters Worldscope; Bloomberg; annual reports; BCG analysis. Note: n = 54 global companies with a market valuation greater than $4 billion. 1Contribution of each factor shown in percentage points of five-year average annual TSR; apparent discrepancies with TSR totals due to rounding. 2Average annual total shareholder return, 2004–2008. 3As of December 31, 2008. 4Change in EBITDA multiple. 5As of June 30, 2009.

2009 TSR5

The Retail Top Ten, 2004–2008

Retail

1

Dairy Farm

2

McDonald's

3

Woolworths

4

Nitori

5

Wal-Mart de México

6

Colruyt

7

Fast Retailing

8

Inditex

9

Esprit Holdings

10

H&M

Sales

Margin

change4 Multiple

Dividend

Share

Net debt

Growth

change

yield

change

change

  • #

    Company

Location

Singapore United States Australia Japan Mexico Belgium Japan Spain Hong Kong Sweden

TSR Deco

mposition1

TSR

2

Market value3

Value Creation at the Retail Top Ten Versus Industry Sample, 2004–2008

135

167

134

137

115

121

111

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

244

0 ’03

200

150

100

50

100

100

Total shareholder return

266

TSR index (2003=100) 300

250

230

112

126

124

138

148

105

115

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

75 ’03

162

179

Sales growth

125

Sales index (2003=100) 200

100

175

150

143

100

100

8.1

8.2

8.6

8.7

’04

’05

’06

’07

12

10

EBITDA margin1

8

15.5

16.0

7.8 6

’03

EBITDA/revenue (%) 18

14.9

14.5

16

14

13.6

16.6

8.6

’08

ƒ

Simplified five-year TSR decomposition2

TSR contribution (%) 20

13

10

8

4

2

3

2

0

12

11.5

11.9

10

11.0

11.6

12.2

13.9

10.8

10.5

EBITDA multiple1

Enterprise value/EBITDA (x) 14

13.3

9.5

10.2

Dividend yield Dividend/stock price (%)

8 6.7

6

4.0

4

2.8

2.7

3

2.8

2.3

  • 2

8

2

2.6

Sales

Margin

Multiple

Dividend

growth

change

change

yield

  • 10

  • 9

6 ’03

’04

’05

’06

’07

7.4

’08

0 ’03

1.6

1.8

1.7

’04

’05

’06

1.5

’07

1.5

’08

Retail top ten

Total sample, n = 54

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters Worldscope; Bloomberg; annual reports; BCG analysis. 1Industry calculation based on aggregate of entire sample. 2Share change and net debt change not shown. 3Industry calculation based on sample average.

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