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45 / 52

(%)

($billions)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

36.2

4.1

20

5

4

7

–3

4

34.9

34.2

3.7

15

2

12

2

–8

11

–34.1

25.4

9.4

19

6

–1

2

0

–1

–4.2

20.3

25.7

14

2

–2

2

2

3

–1.6

19.3

7.5

19

1

–3

2

0

0

29.6

16.6

17.2

10

8

–11

2

1

6

–18.5

15.5

3.3

9

2

1

1

5

–2

17.3

13.9

12.7

8

16

–16

1

2

3

8.4

12.7

7.1

16

3

–7

1

0

1

0.8

12.0

17.0

8

1

–2

2

4

–1

12.9

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters Worldscope; Bloomberg; annual reports; BCG analysis. Note: n = 43 global companies with a market valuation greater than $3 billion. 1Contribution of each factor shown in percentage points of five-year average annual TSR; apparent discrepancies with TSR totals due to rounding. 2Average annual total shareholder return, 2004–2008. 3As of December 31, 2008. 4Change in EBITDA multiple. 5As of June 30, 2009.

2009 TSR5

Share

Net debt

change

change

Transportation and Logistics

1

Grupo CCR

Brazil

2

Hyundai Merchant Marine

South Korea

3

C.H. Robinson Worldwide

United States

4

BNSF Railway

United States

5

Kuehne + Nagel

Switzerland

6

Norfolk Southern

United States

7

J.B. Hunt

United States

8

CSX

United States

9

Expeditors

United States

10

Canadian National Railway

Canada

TSR Deco

mposition1

change4 Multiple

Dividend

yield

The Transportation and Logistics Top Ten, 2004–2008

  • #

    Company

Country

Sales

Margin

Growth

change

TSR

2

Market value3

Value Creation at the Transportation and Logistics Top Ten Versus Industry Sample, 2004– 2008

145

193

158

168

119

147

120

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

224

0 ’03

200

150

100

50

100

100

Total shareholder return

254

TSR index (2003=100) 300

250

222

116

134

129

134

143

104

114

’04

’05

’06

’07

’08

75 ’03

165

187

Sales growth

125

Sales index (2003=100) 200

175

150

154

100

100

100

20

18.6

20.4

17.8

18.3

15 ’03

’04

18.6

17.9

’05

’06

’07

EBITDA margin1

19.4

22.3

22.6

EBITDA/revenue (%) 25

22.8

22.2

18.8

’08

ƒ

Simplified five-year TSR decomposition2

TSR contribution (%) 20

EBITDA multiple Enterprise value/EBITDA (x)

11

1 0 . 4

10.6

10.5

10.7

1

Dividend yield3

Dividend/stock price (%) 4

14

10.0

10

3.2

10

8

4

1

22

0

Sales

Margin

Multiple

Dividend

growth

change

change

yield

Transportation and logistics top ten

  • 10

  • 5

  • 7

9

9.3

9.3

9.0

8

7

6 ’03

’04

’05

Total sample, n = 43

8.5

’06

8.9

’07

7.2

7.1

’08

3

3.1

2

1 ’03

2.7

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

’04

’05

’06

2.5

1.9

1.9

’07

1.9

1.7

’08

Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters Worldscope; Bloomberg; annual reports; BCG analysis. 1Industry calculation based on aggregate of entire sample. 2Share change and net debt change not shown. 3Industry calculation based on sample average.

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