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Probabilities of Outcomes

1

IPO_gt50

0.9

IPO_gt40

IPO_45-50

IPO_40-45

IPO 35-40

_

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

Median

0.4

IPO 30-35

_

0.3

IPO_25-30

IPO 20-25

_

0.2

0.1

IPO 0-20

_

0

7/8

7/11

7/14

7/17

7/20

7/23

7/26

7/29

8/1

8/4

8/7

8/10

8/13

8/16

Figure 2: Prices of IEM Google WTA Contracts. This is an area chart. Each band corresponds to the

price of one contract. The width of the band is the normalized price of the contract. Each contract price

is interpreted as the probability that Google’s market capitalization will be within the associated range (in

billions of dollar) after the first day of trading. The sum of normalized prices (probabilities) equals 1.

36

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