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$50

Forecast Market Capitalization (x $1,000,000,000)

$45

$40

$35

$30

$25

$20

$15

$10

$5

Amendment 3

Amendment 4

Amendment 5 Amendment 6 Amendment 7

Amendment 8 Amendment 9

$-

7/8 7/10 7/12 7/14 7/16 7/18 7/20 7/22 7/24 7/26 7/28 7/30 8/1 8/3 8/5 8/7 8/9 8/11 8/13 8/15 8/17

Filing Dates

Mean(Lin)

IPO Cap

Closing Cap

Mean(WTA)

Figure 3: Predicted Google market capitalization from normalized closing prices in the IEM Google

Winner-Takes-All Market (Mean(WTA)). For comparison, the prediction from the IEM Google Linear

Market (Mean(Lin)), the actual market capitalization according to the IPO price (IPO Cap) and the first-

day closing price (Closing Cap) are shown. For context, S1 amendment filing dates are also shown.

37

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