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Parameter Sensitivity in Hydrologic Modeling - page 125 / 163

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For each return period, the elasticity of discharge with respect to SCS lag time is calculated by dividing the percent change in discharge by the percent change in SCS lag time. As shown in Table 5.15, there are slight variations in discharge elasticity for each return period. These variations were averaged to establish a relationship between SCS lag time and discharge. The averaged value is –0.28.

Elasticity

Elasticity

Elasticity

Elasticity

Elasticity

Elasticity

Elasticity

Q2-Lag

Q5-Lag

Q10-Lag

Q25-Lag

Q50-Lag

Q100-Lag

Qavg-Lag

Table 5.15: Discharge Elasticity Due to Parameter Variation

  • -

    0.29

  • -

    0.27

  • -

    0.21

  • -

    0.30

  • -

    0.30

  • -

    0.30

  • -

    0.28

Results from this analysis show that a 1% increase in SCS lag time yields a -0.28% decrease in discharge.

5.2.2.3 Drainage Area Variation

The second component involving analysis of the HEC-1 model is to evaluate changes in area, and how these changes affect discharge. Similar to the lag time study, the areas of each sub-basin were increased by 5%, 10%, and 20% and also decreased by 5%, 10%, and 20%. Table 5.16 shows these values.

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