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service provided to Certified Commercial Investment Managers5 .

Significantly, the study shows that a

retail store designed to draw on a “regional” population would not be viable in the Town of New

Scotland for two reasons: 1) the population level in the draw area is insufficient; and, 2) competition

from surrounding retail regional drawing stores has over-saturated the market.

With respect to the population limitation, the study shows that the population within the range

of a community shopping center draw area(10-minute drive) is 30,000, which is not sufficient to

justify 100,000 sq. ft. of new retail in New Scotland. The demographic study revealed that, at most, the

draw areacould support only 36,000 sq. ft. of a new Wal-Mart/Target” type retail store (General

Merchandise NAICS 5452). The population in this 10-minute drive area would have to be more than

double to support a store of 100,000 square feet, which would translate into approximately 18,000 new

homes. Such a population increase is not projected within the near future (Tab 7).

With respect to the competition limitation, there are simply too many other regional drawing

stores within a 15-minute driving distance with access to major arterial or interstate roadways to sustain

a regional or super-regional store in New Scotland. Centers such as Colonie Center (1.6 million sq. ft.)

and Wolf Road big box stores, Crossgates Mall (1.7 million sq. ft.), Crossgates Commons (1.6 million sq.

ft.), and the Bethlehem Town Centre (350,000 sq. ft., Lowes/Wal-Mart) provide an oversupply of general

merchandise retail. The study indicates that if such a regional shopping center were constructed in New

Scotland, it would likely fail due to the proximity of existing competitive regional shopping centers with

“major arterial” road access.

5 A Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) is a recognized expert in the disciplines of commercial and investment real estate. Page | 10

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