service provided to Certified Commercial Investment Managers5 .
Significantly, the study shows that a
retail store designed to draw on a “regional” population would not be viable in the Town of New
Scotland for two reasons: 1) the population level in the draw area is insufficient; and, 2) competition
from surrounding retail regional drawing stores has over-saturated the market.
With respect to the population limitation, the study shows that the population within the range
of a community shopping center “draw area” (10-minute drive) is 30,000, which is not sufficient to
justify 100,000 sq. ft. of new retail in New Scotland. The demographic study revealed that, at most, the
“draw area” could support only 36,000 sq. ft. of a new “Wal-Mart/Target” type retail store (General
Merchandise NAICS 5452). The population in this 10-minute drive area would have to be more than
double to support a store of 100,000 square feet, which would translate into approximately 18,000 new
homes. Such a population increase is not projected within the near future (Tab 7).
With respect to the competition limitation, there are simply too many other regional drawing
stores within a 15-minute driving distance with access to major arterial or interstate roadways to sustain
a regional or super-regional store in New Scotland. Centers such as Colonie Center (1.6 million sq. ft.)
and Wolf Road big box stores, Crossgates Mall (1.7 million sq. ft.), Crossgates Commons (1.6 million sq.
ft.), and the Bethlehem Town Centre (350,000 sq. ft., Lowes/Wal-Mart) provide an oversupply of general
merchandise retail. The study indicates that if such a regional shopping center were constructed in New
Scotland, it would likely fail due to the proximity of existing competitive regional shopping centers with
“major arterial” road access.
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