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2009 State of the Market Report

Transmission Congestion

same year. If the Midwest ISO has a shortfall over the entire year, FTR payments are reduced pro rata.

Figure 51 compares the monthly total day-ahead congestion revenues to the monthly total FTR obligations. The figure shows that the day-ahead congestion collections continue to be substantially less than FTR obligations (by approximately 13 percent in 2009). The shortfall was 12.0 and 16.7 percent in 2008 and 2007 respectively. Shortfalls are undesirable because they introduce uncertainty and can distort the value of the FTRs.

Figure 51: Day-Ahead Congestion Revenue and Payments to FTR Holders 2007 – 2009: All Hours

$20

$ Millions

2007

2008

2009

DA Congestion Cost

632,878,942

500,251,809

304,521,602

Obligations to FTR Holders

722,639,981

562,657,398

350,432,049

Funding Shortfall

120,986,381

67,308,566

46,090,218

$140

$120

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

$10

$0

$0

J F MAMJ J AS ONDJ F MAMJ J AS ONDJ F MAMJ J AS OND

2007 2008 2009

$ Millions

Surpluses or shortfalls occur when the Midwest ISO sells fewer or more FTRs than the actual capability of the network in the day-ahead market. The reasons for the differences between the FTR and day-ahead modeling that contribute to surpluses and shortfalls are generally similar to the differences discussed previously between the day-ahead and real-time. Transmission outages or other factors cause the capability of the system in the day-ahead modeling to differ from the capability assumed when the FTRs were allocated or sold. In addition, loop flows over the system caused by generators and loads outside of the Midwest ISO use more or less of the

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