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2009 State of the Market Report

Transmission Congestion

Value Relative to Cinergy Hub ($/MWh)

expectation of the day-ahead congestion. The profit earned by an FTR holder is the difference between the FTR price paid and the day-ahead congestion payment to the FTR holder.

The results in the following figures help explain the changes in FTR profitability shown in the analyses above. We analyze values for the WUMS area, the Minnesota Hub, and the Michigan Hub in both peak and off-peak hours. Figure 62 and Figure 63 show the results of our analysis for WUMS in peak and off-peak hours, respectively. All values in the figures are computed relative to Cinergy Hub, which is the most actively-traded location in the Midwest ISO.

Figure 62: Comparison of FTR Auction Prices and Congestion Value WUMS Area, 2007 – 2009: Peak Hours

$40

DA Congestion Auction Price

$30

$20

$10

$0

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    $10

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08

09

J

F

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A

M

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A

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  • O

    N

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    N

D

2008 2009

The value of congestion at WUMS relative to Cinergy was negative in most months in 2009. Convergence between FTR auction prices and congestion improved modestly in 2009 compared to 2008. The average absolute value of the monthly price difference between the auction price

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