2009 State of the Market Report
congestion in 2009 was $1.51 per MWh, down from $1.75 in 2008 (excluding June 2008). Similar to peak hours, the average annual price spread between the auction price and the congestion in off-peak hours was near zero in 2009, indicating that the FTR market performed well in off-peak hours.
Figure 64 and Figure 65 show the same analysis for the Minnesota Hub in peak and off-peak hours, respectively. As with WUMS, congestion variability at the Minnesota Hub has deceased markedly since 2007, and convergence between congestion values and FTR prices has improved. The monthly average of the absolute value of the spread between the FTR prices and the day- ahead congestion value was $2.26 per MWh in 2009, down 42 percent compared to 2008 (excluding June) and down 68 percent compared to 2007. This is likely due to the fact that the congestion patterns have become more predictable in 2009.
Figure 64: Comparison of FTR Auction Prices and Congestion Value Minnesota Hub, 2007 – 2009: Peak Hours
07 08 09 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Off-peak congestion was similarly more uniform than peak congestion was in 2009 and reversed direction in the middle of 2008. This reversal was driven mainly by the increase in supply in the
Value Relative to Cinergy Hub ($/MWh)
DA Congestion Auction Price