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2009 State of the Market Report

Transmission Congestion

West that resulted in more frequent west-to-east congestion, particularly in off-peak hours when load was low. Valuing FTRs can be difficult when congestion is changing directions. In 2007 and 2008, some months had negative congestion while others had positive congestion.

Figure 65: Comparison of FTR Auction Prices and Congestion Value Minnesota Hub, 2007 – 2009: Off-Peak Hours

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Value Relative to Cinergy Hub ($/MWh)

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DA Congestion Auction Price

07 08 09 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2008

2009

Like the peak-hour results, convergence between the FTR markets and the day-ahead congestion improved in 2009. The monthly average off-peak spread between the two declined 14 percent from 2008 and 55 percent from 2007. Additionally, the Minnesota Hub the average annual price spread between the auction price and the congestion in both peak and off-peak hours was near zero. This indicates that the FTR markets performed well and produced prices that accurately reflected the congestion affecting this area.

The final two figures of this subsection, Figure 66 and Figure 67, show our analyses of FTR prices into the Michigan Hub relative to Cinergy Hub in peak and off-peak hours. The value of congestion and FTR prices from Michigan to Cinergy are low relative to the magnitude of WUMS and Minnesota Hub FTR valuations net of Cinergy. In fall 2009, congestion increased

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