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2009 State of the Market Report

Load and Resources

Load (MW)

> 85 GW

> 90 GW

> 95 GW

> 100 GW

2007

473 (5.4%)

267 (3.0%)

122 (1.4%)

31 (0.4%)

2008

237 (2.7%)

103 (1.2%)

21 (0.2%)

0 (0.0%)

2009

76 (0.9%)

23 (0.3%)

3 (0.0%)

0 (0.0%)

can be winter-peaking. The peak load in 2009 occurred in late June at 96.5 GW, almost 6 percent below the forecast peak load of 102.5 GW. Figure 7 shows overall load levels for the past three years in the form of hourly load duration curves, which show the number of hours (horizontal axis) in which load is greater than an indicated level (vertical axis).

110,000

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

Figure 7: Load Duration Curves 2007 – 2009

Predicted Peak 102,472 MW

Actual Peak 96,497 MW

Hours of Load

0

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500

Hours

Hourly loads at all levels were down in 2009. Average load dropped 6.5 percent compared to 2008 and 8.9 percent compared to 2007. These reductions in load are attributable to both mild temperatures and reduced economic activity.7 The figure also shows that nearly 20 percent of the peak energy demand occurs in only the top three percent of hours, which is a typical pattern of energy demand. Because electricity cannot be economically stored in large quantities, this load pattern indicates that a large share of the Midwest ISO’s resources is needed primarily to meet the system’s peak energy or operating reserve demands. This underscores the importance

7

The Midwest ISO performed an analysis concluding that the decline in economic activity alone contributed to a 6.5 percent reduction in average load in 2009.

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