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2009 State of the Market Report

List of Figures

Figure 36: Non-Responsive Supplemental Reserve Deployments .............................................................55 Figure 37: Day-Ahead and Real-Time Generation .....................................................................................56 Figure 38: Real-Time Dispatchable Range.................................................................................................57 Figure 39: Changes in Supply, Day-Ahead to Real-Time ..........................................................................59 Figure 40: Total Real-Time RSG Payment Distribution.............................................................................60 Figure 41: Total Day-Ahead RSG Payment Distribution ...........................................................................61 Figure 42: Weekly RSG Payment Distribution by Region .........................................................................62 Figure 43: Attribution of RSG Costs by Factor ..........................................................................................64 Figure 44: Price Volatility Make-Whole Payment......................................................................................65 Figure 45: Average Daily Peaking Unit Dispatch and Prices .....................................................................66 Figure 46: Day-Ahead Scheduling vs. Real-Time Wind Generation..........................................................69 Figure 47: Wind Generation Capacity Factors by Load Hour Percentile ...................................................70 Figure 48: Manual Redispatches.................................................................................................................71 Figure 49: Total Congestion Costs..............................................................................................................75 Figure 50: Real-Time Balancing Congestion Costs....................................................................................76 Figure 51: Day-Ahead Congestion Revenue and Payments to FTR Holders .............................................78 Figure 52: Payments to FTR Holders .........................................................................................................80 Figure 53: FTR Underfunding and Day-Ahead Congestion .......................................................................81 Figure 54-55: Value of Real-Time Congestion...........................................................................................82 Figure 56: Monthly TLR Activity...............................................................................................................85 Figure 57: Unmanageable Constraints........................................................................................................88 Figure 58: Value of Real-Time Congestion by Path...................................................................................88 Figure 59: Pricing of Unmanageable Congestion by Voltage Level ..........................................................90 Figure 60-61: FTR Profitability ..................................................................................................................91 Figure 62-67: Comparison of FTR Auction Prices and Congestion Value.................................................93 Figure 68: Market-to-Market Events ..........................................................................................................99 Figure 69: Market-to-Market Settlements.................................................................................................100 Figure 70: PJM Market-to-Market Constraints.........................................................................................102 Figure 71: Midwest ISO Market-to-Market Constraints...........................................................................103 Figure 72: Market Shares and Market Concentration by Region .............................................................107 Figure 73: Pivotal Supplier Frequency by Load Level .............................................................................108 Figure 74: Percentage of Active Constraints with a Pivotal Supplier.......................................................110 Figure 75: Percent of Intervals with at Least One Pivotal Supplier..........................................................111 Figure 76: Monthly Average Output Gap: Real-Time Market .................................................................116 Figure 77-80: Real-Time Market Output Gap ..........................................................................................117 Figure 81: Ancillary Services Offers ........................................................................................................120 Figure 82-85: Real-Time Deratings and Forced Outages .........................................................................122 Figure 86: Real-Time Mitigation by Month .............................................................................................125 Figure 87: Real-Time RSG Payment Mitigation by Month......................................................................126 Figure 88: Average Hourly Day-Ahead Imports ......................................................................................137 Figure 89: Average Hourly Real-Time Imports........................................................................................138 Figure 90: Hourly Average Real-Time Net Imports from PJM................................................................139 Figure 91: Hourly Average Real-Time Imports from Canada ..................................................................140 Figure 92: Actual Flows Around Lake Erie..............................................................................................141 Figure 93-94: Real-Time Prices and Interface Schedules.........................................................................143

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