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2009 State of the Market Report

Market Performance

Figure 19: Peak Hour Day-Ahead Scheduled Load versus Actual Load 2007 – 2009

104%

Share of Actual Load

100%

96%

92%

88%

84%

Net Virtual Supply Net Virtual Load Price Based Load Fixed Load

80%

070809 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2007

2008

2009

Share of Actual Load

All Hour

98.9%

99.2% 99.9% 97.5% 97.1% 98.8% 97.2% 98.4% 100.1% 98.7% 99.7% 99.8% 99.4% 99.8% 100.3% 99.2% 99.8% 98.2% 99.5% 98.8% 99.7% 98.7% 99.0% 98.9% 98.9% 99.5% 99.6% 100.1% 99.4% 98.7% 99.2% 99.4% 99.9% 100.3% 100.7% 100.4% 100.1% 100.2% 100.6%

Pe ak Hour

96.8%

97.6% 99.9% 95.3% 94.9% 96.2% 95.3% 96.5% 99.1% 97.5% 98.3% 97.9% 96.5% 97.0% 97.5% 96.9% 97.0% 95.8% 97.2% 98.0% 98.5% 97.6% 97.9% 97.8% 97.4% 98.3% 98.5% 99.1% 98.7% 98.4% 99.6% 100.2% 100.1% 100.2% 100.5% 101.0% 100.8% 100.7% 99.1%

Net load scheduling in 2009 was higher than during the prior two years. Net load scheduled in all hours of the day-ahead market as a percent of the actual load increased slightly to 99.9 percent. The vast majority of this load is “fixed”, meaning it will be scheduled at any price. In 2009, price-sensitive and net virtual load accounted for 3.6 percent of the scheduled load, up from 2.2 percent in 2008. The day-ahead market consistently cleared net virtual load in 2009.

Net load scheduling in the peak hour of each day (the hour that is most likely to require the Midwest ISO to commit additional generation) increased substantially. In 2009, 99.9 percent of the peak hour actual load was scheduled on net in the day-ahead market, versus 97.6 percent in 2008 and 96.8 percent in 2007. Higher load scheduling and lower overall load have together reduced the Midwest ISO’s reliance on peaking resources in the real-time and have lowered real- time RSG costs.

Virtual trading in the day-ahead market consists of purchases or sales of energy that are not associated with physical load or physical resources. Virtual trading provides essential liquidity

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