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2009 State of the Market Report

Market Performance

Figure 33: Market Spin Shortage Intervals vs. Rampable Spin Shortage Intervals

2009

250

2,000

Intervals of Shortage

200

150

100

50

0

Market and Real Shortage Real Shortage Only Market Shortage Only

Rampable Spin Requirement Market Requirement

Share of All Intervals

    • 0.28

      %

    • 0.03

      %

    • 1.15

      %

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

Spinning Reserve Requirement (MW)

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Market Real

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

In nearly 20 percent of the shortage intervals, there were both real and market shortages. In almost 80 percent of the shortages, the market indicated a shortage that was not real. The results indicate that the consistency between the market and real requirements could be improved, which would improve the economic signals provided by the market. Hence, we recommend that the Midwest ISO improve the consistency of the requirements by setting the market requirement dynamically – that is, equal to the real requirement as it changes – or, alternatively, reducing the difference between the two requirements.

Regulation shortages occurred in 778 intervals in 2009, less than one percent of all intervals. Three quarters of these shortages occurred during off-peak hours. The shortages are most frequent in these hours because fewer regulation-capable units are online. The shortages are typically small: 33 percent of deficits were less than 50 MW and 59 percent were less than 100 MW. Figure 34 shows a plot of regulation prices during shortage intervals. There is a separate

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