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2009 State of the Market Report

Market Performance

Load was much more fully scheduled (nearly 100 percent) in the day-ahead in 2009 than in prior years. However, lower average and peak loads limited the need for peaking units in 2009.

Nominal real-time RSG costs fell 47 percent in 2009 to $111 million. The sharp decline is attributable to lower fuel prices in 2009 and fully-scheduled load in the day-ahead for most months of the year. On a fuel-adjusted basis, RSG costs were largely unchanged. In addition, reduced reserve requirements and improvements in commitment processes contributed to a decline in RSG costs after the first three months under ASM. Figure 41 below shows that nominal day-ahead RSG costs increased 2.7 percent to almost $16 million in 2009. On a fuel- price-adjusted basis, these costs doubled. However, they continue to be a small percentage of total uplift costs in the market.

RSG Costs ($ Millions)

Fuel Price Adj. RSG: Congestion

2.53 M

1.64 M

1.38 M

Fuel Price Adj. RSG: Capacity

17.54 M

8.52 M

18.92 M

Total Nominal RSG

27.91 M

15.36 M

15.77 M

$40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0

2009

2008

Figure 41: Total Day-Ahead RSG Payment Distribution 2007 – 2009

RSG Distribution

2007

07 08 09 Avg

J

F

MAM

JJ 2008

A

S

OND

J

F

MAM

JJ 2009

A

S

OND

Peaker

19

15

7

4

12

8

2

0

23

49

13

32

1

4

5

4

3

1

1

21

17

4

13

10

6

4

4

Congestion

4

1

2

1

1

7

0

0

1

2

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

14

1

0

1

2

2

1

1

Capacity

16

14

5

3

11

2

2

0

23

47

9

32

1

4

5

4

3

1

1

8

17

4

12

8

4

3

2

Non-Peaker

81

85

93

96

88

92

98 100 77

51

87

68

99

96

95

96

97

99

99

79

83

96

87

90

94

96

96

Congestion

9

16

4

26

18

22

13 46 15

3

8

3

18

1

5

1

1

4

2

2

1

5

4

5

17

6

5

Capacity

72

68

89

70

71

70

86

54

62

47

79

65

81

96

90

95

97

95

97

77

82

90

84

85

77

89

91

Share of Day-Ahead RSG

Costs by Unit Type (%)

To better illustrate the trends in RSG costs, Figure 42 analyzes the real-time RSG distribution data by week and region. The figure highlights several trends. As detailed elsewhere in this report, the summer peak was mild relative to prior years and relative to the 2009 Summer Assessment. Accordingly, the real-time RSG costs incurred during these weeks was minimal.

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