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Assumption

Corresponding uncertainty

What the reports say

Sources

What this means in terms of ‘confidence’

The model is ‘back-cast’ to take out these impacts.

construction traffic from building a third runway and sixth terminal.  

baseline of NOx levels.

The population in the area around the airport remains the same between 2002 and 2030

The actual population in the area may well be greater than that assumed in the models

“It was agreed with DfT that for estimating exposure, all future year scenarios would use 2002 base year population and number of properties – no account of growth is included.”

This is extremely unlikely, given the strong pressures for development in London and the South East.

Atkins (2007) Population Exposure to Pollution, 2.1.2

Depending on how much the population around the airport grows after 2002, the model could significantly underestimate the number of people affected by air pollution from the airport.

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