ity slippedto 2.4 percentperyear,and in 1973-82it fell to 0.9 percentperyear (U.S. Bureauof Labor Statistics,1983,p. 4). Growthin total outputand,even moremarkedly, in outputperworker, alsoslowed.Annualgrowthin realGNP averaged3.9 percentfrom 1960to 1970. It slowedto 3.1 percentfrom 1970to 1980;during 1980-84it was 2.7 percent(U.S. Bureauof Census,1986,table724).
The measure to productivityhavelarge fluctuationsfrom yearto year, reflectingtheperiodicswingsin the levelof economicactivity. However,a gen- eraldownwardtrend in productivitygrowthis clearlydiscernible.GNP perem- ployed worker increasedby 1.9 percentperyearfrom 1963to 1973,but by a meage0.1 percentperyear from 1973to 1979(EconomicReport ofthePresi- dent, 1980p. 85). This latterrate of growthis estimate to be well below not only thatof GermanyandJapanbutalsothatof France(2.7%), Italy (1.6%)and eventhe U.K. (0.3%) (Ibid.). Furthersigns that all was not well initially in- cludedhigh inflation, high unemployment,and high interestrates;latera large public debtand tradedeficit; and throughout,low savings.
Dueto the questfor moresocialgrowthandgreateharmonywiththeenviron- ment, not all observer were againstslower(or evenno)economicgrowth;re- cently, though, there has been increased concern with the causes of underdevelopme anda searchfor possiblewaysto redevelop.The majoreco- nomic analysesappliedin this searchhavebeenof the macroeconomic,aggre- gate, input-outputkind, emphasizingthe decline of inputs (e.g., capital per worker)andthe resultingdeclineof output(e.g., GNP percapital).Here,a dif- ferentline of analysisis suggested,one whichdrawsheavilyon developmental economics.If the U.S.A. is to redevelop,the theoryandexperienceof devel- oping nations may containa lesson.This approac is moredescriptiveof the structuresinvolved, ratherthanaggregat andanalytic.For example,it asksnot only how much capitalsustainedeconomicgrowthrequiresbut also how this capitalis to bedistributedamongvarioussectors.Developmentheorystresses the needfor preparingthe infrastructureandcapital goodssectorbeforemass consumptionof goodsand servicesis undertaken(Hirschman,1958;Rostow, 1971).Otherwise,consumptionquicklyeatsupthenecessarproductiveassets. While thereis no agreed-upo list of whatelementsmakeupthe infrastructure (or "social overheadcapital"), mosttheoriesof economicdevelopmeninclude transportatio andpower.Reviewingbothcasestudiesof economicdevelopment andthe historyof theU.S.A.'s initial development,weculled outa list of seven elements:R&D (innovation),human resources,capital goods,transportation, communications,power,and financial/legalinstitutions.The inclusionof each elemen isjustified below. Thereis, however,nothingsacrosancaboutthelist. Someelementstreatedhereasone might be subdivided,while othersmight be combinedinto one category.This is but a preliminaryworking list. Recently, threeof the seven-R&D, humanresources,and capitalgoods-have cometo the forefrontof a nationaldialogueconcernin the revitalizationof the American economy. Therefore, this paper will highlight thesethree elements.Fuller