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  • 3.

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    • 3.1

      Multipliers

Direct spending by visitors, either while at the marine reserve or as a result of a trip to visit the marine reserve has a flow-on or multiplier effect on the local Rodney economy. This multiplier effect3 augments the economic impact of direct spending to give a total economic impact. Multipliers for each category of visitor spending were calculated by creating and manipulating an approximate economic input-output model for Rodney District generated by Butcher Partners Ltd4. The model for Rodney was derived from the 2003-04 national model using a well-established non-survey procedure for deriving regional models.5 The multipliers used for calculation of Total Output, Value Added (business and personal income), Household income, and Employment are shown in Table 1, and are Type II multipliers, (i.e. which include the induced impacts of increased household spending as visitor spending at various businesses leads to increased household

incomes in those businesses).

These multipliers are applied to the net increase in visitor spending attributable to the marine reserve, where the net increase is estimated by asking visitors how likely they would have been to visit the area in the absence of the marine reserve, and how much longer or shorter their trip would have been in the absence of the marine reserve.

Manufacturing

1.45

0.45

0.68

0.40

0.51

8.9

11.5

Retail Margins

1.58

0.53

0.85

0.46

0.61

14.1

17.7

Food / Restaurants

1.63

0.44

0.75

0.37

0.52

14.4

18.0

Accommodation

1.57

0.55

0.83

0.43

0.55

14.5

17.7

Activities

1.72

0.37

0.74

0.26

0.47

7.2

12.1

Table 1. Multipliers by Sector for Rodney District (derived by Butcher Partners Ltd)

Output Multiplier

Value Added :Spend

Household Income : Spend

Employment : Spend Ratios (FTEs / $m)

Direct

Total

Ratios Direct

Total

Ratios Direct

Total

3 For example, see explanation in Miller “Economic Multipliers: How Communities Can Use Them for Planning” University of Arkansas, http://www.uaex.edu/Other_Areas/publications/PDF/FSCDD-6.pdf

4

Copyright to Butcher Partners Ltd.

5 For a fuller description of this process see Jensen, R.C., Mandervill, R.D., and Karunaratne, N.O. [1979]; "Regional Economic Planning: Generation of Regional Input-Output Tables. London: Croom Helm

10

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