portion of respondents
district, this spend is not all as a result of the marine reserve’s existence. Visitors were asked how likely it was that they would have come to Rodney District if the Marine Reserve did not exist, and their responses are shown in Figure 1. A significant proportion of visitors probably or definitely would have come to the District, even if there was not a marine reserve. We allocated a reasonable probability of coming to Rodney for each response group (see column 4 in Table 4). This was done by allocating 100% to ‘No’ and 0% to ‘Yes’, and evenly allocating a percentage value to the ‘likely’ to ‘unlikely’ answers in between. This was considered a simpler approach than asking those surveyed for a percentage probability that they would visit if the reserve did not exist.
Would you visit Rodney District on this trip if this marine reserve did not exist?
Visitor Type day overnight
Figure 1 Effect of marine reserve on visits to Rodney District
We also asked visitors whether the absence of a marine reserve would have changed the duration of their stay in the district. Their answers are shown in column 5 of Table 4. As the table shows, visitors would stay less time in Rodney District if there was no marine reserve.
Adjusting the spend in each group by both these factors (see column 6 of Table 4) it is estimated that the direct spend in Rodney attributable to the existence of the marine reserve was $12.1 million in the year ended Feb 2008.