2003-05 period. Capacity steadily increased by 5.9 percent over 2003-05 while production rose by 11.2 percent. Home market shipments increased each year for an overall rise of 10.3 percent and exports to the United States19 and to all other markets rose by 7.8 percent and 13.2 percent, respectively. Capacity, production, and home market shipments again increased during the interim periods (and are projected to continue to grow at a generally slow pace in 2007 compared to 2006). In contrast, total export shipments fell from January-September 2005 to January-September 2006 although exports to the U.S. market rose (by 14.8 percent). Total exports are projected to again decline in 2007 compared to full year 2006 with exports to the United States falling (by 10.0 percent) while exports to all other markets rise (by 5.4 percent). While slightly below the projected 2006 level, the volume of total exports that are projected in 2007 remains slightly below the 2005 figure.
The Korean respondents state in their postconference brief that a decrease in exports to the United States in 2007 should offset rising home market demand from the on-coming Presidential election in 2007.20 Analysts reportedly project strong growth estimates for the Korean home market derived from “growing populations with disposable income, increasing demand for high quality magazines, high basis CFS displacing certain cartonboards, increased four color and digital printing, increased direct marketing and advertising, and some substitution of CFS for uncoated magazines.”21
As noted in table IV-1, a *** portion of the CFS paper imported from Korea is marketed by U.S. importers related to the Korean manufacturers. Specifically, *** sells CFS paper through ***,22 *** distribute subject merchandise in the United States through their affiliate ***,23 and *** sells through its U.S. branch ***. 24
CFS paper exported by the Korean manufacturers as of August 2003 is subject to an antidumping order in China.25 Korean respondents list the antidumping margins for three manufacturers in their postconference brief (p. 42, n. 168). Petitioner argues that the imposition of the antidumping duty order has resulted in the diversion to the United States of Korean product that otherwise would have been shipped to China.26
Table VII-10 lists overall capacity and production data for products manufactured in Korea on the same equipment and machinery used in the production of the subject merchandise. Korean manufacturers argue that there is “little risk” of product shifting since the production lines where the subject merchandise is produced are “primarily dedicated” to CFS paper. Any shift of paper machines from uncoated to coated free sheet production would require “substantial sums” to add coating machines, rewinders, and supercalendars. Approximately two months to install and four months to adjust the additional machinery would be required to produce high quality merchandise.27
19 The only annual decline for any index in 2003-05 was the fall in exports to the United States from 2004 to 2005.
Korean respondents’ postconference brief, p. 40. Korean respondents’ postconference brief, pp. 40-41. ***’s foreign producer questionnaire response, question I-4. ***’s foreign producer questionnaire responses, question I-5. ***’s foreign producer questionnaire response, question I-5. Korean manufacturers’ foreign producer questionnaire responses, question II-6. Petitioner’s postconference brief, p. 47. Korean respondents’ postconference brief, p. 42.