Conditions of Competition and the Business Cycle
The following conditions of competition inform our analysis of whether there is a reasonable indication of material injury by reason of the subject imports.
Apparent U.S. consumption of CFSP increased over the POI, rising by *** percent from 2003 to 2005.95 Demand for CFSP is cyclical and follows general economic conditions.96 Demand for the product also is somewhat seasonal, with increased demand in the third and possibly in the fourth calendar
quarters, as CFSP users anticipate printing books and catalogues for the end-of-year holidays.97
term contracts or spot sales are the predominant basis on which the subject imports and the domestic like product are sold.98
In 2005, 10 U.S. firms accounted for virtually all U.S. production of CFSP.99 Of these, two producers, New Page and Sappi Fine Paper NA accounted for *** percent of domestic production.100 Domestic producers were the principal suppliers of CFSP in the U.S. market throughout the POI, with a market share on a quantity basis that ranged from *** percent to *** percent in the 2003- 2005 period.101 The next largest share of the U.S. market was supplied by producers in nonsubject countries, and the remaining share of the U.S. market was supplied by subject imports.102 The domestic industry’s capacity to produce CFSP rose slightly in the 2003-2005 period, and also was higher in the interim 2006 period than in the interim 2005 period. 103
The domestic industry saw a number of changes to its organization and production operations during the POI, including the shutdown of several paper machines (the equivalent of closing one production line in a multiline plant) and the closure of one plant. 104
95 Apparent U.S. consumption rose from *** short tons in 2003 to *** short tons in 2004, and then declined slightly to *** short tons in 2005. Apparent U.S. consumption was higher in interim 2006 (*** short tons) than in interim 2005 (*** short tons). CR/PR at Table IV-5.
CR at II-7, PR at II-5.
97 CR at V-6, PR at V-5. We recognize that, because demand for CFSP is somewhat seasonal, full-year data may merit greater weight than partial-year data. In any final phase of these investigations, we intend to consider the extent to which seasonality affects the reliability of partial-year import and consumption data.
CR at V-3, PR at V-3.
CR at III-1, PR at III-1.
CR/PR at Table IV-5.
103 The domestic industry’s capacity was 4.741 million short tons in 2003, 4.855 million short tons in 2004, and 4.834 million short tons in 2005. It was 3.627 million short tons in interim 2005, and 3.897 million short tons in interim 2006. CR/PR at Table III-3.
CR at III-4, PR at III-3.