solid platform for continuedgood performance and achievement o f PRSP targets, particularly with a more programmatic support from donors.
Low-case scenario. The low-casescenario i s determined on Mali not being able to
meet the base-casecriteria. Inthis case, lendingwould only be up to US$237 million as the Bank would not do any further adjustment lendingand would reduce or delay other lending operations. The PRSCs would be postponeduntilFY07 (or beyond). Ifnecessary, an investmentoperationwould be preparedto support the health and educationsectors, inthe absence o f budgetary support from the PRSC. The focus o f the Bank’s work would shift to
supporting capacity buildingto enable M a l i to move back to the base case.
Use o f IDA Grants. Mali qualifies for IDA grants as a debt-vulnerableIDA-only
country as per the guidelines which set the criteria as part o f the IDA-13 replenishment
framework. On this basis, IDA grants can account for 29% o f the lendingprogram although the actual percentage o f the lendingprogram which may be financedby IDA grants i s established on an annual basis. The strategy for the use o f these grants inthe M a l i program i s to apply them to those Bank activities which support the priorities o f the PRSP. InFY04, the Global Distance LearningNetwork Project, the proposedHIV/AIDS MAP operation, and
the proposed SAC-3 Supplemental Credit would be financed through IDA grants. The InterimTransport Project inFY04 and the Rural Community-BasedProject inFY05 would be partially funded through IDA grants.
High Case (Base Case plus)
Macroeconomic framework: Continued maintenance o f good macroeconomicenvironmentas witnessed by continuedsatisfactory implementationof the PGRF program and/or attainment of the PRSP macro goals
Strong macroeconomic performance surpassingthe PRSP macro targets
Supervision of SAC-3 IMF PRGF supervision Analysis o f macroeconomic policy measures identified in PRSP, Le. domestic revenue mobilization PRSP Progress Reports Joint Staff Assessment
Table 9: CAS Scenario Triggers
PRSP Progress Report Joint Staff Assessment Indicatorsfrom Health and Educationsector-wide programs
PRSP: Satisfactory implementationo f the PRSP and progresstowards meeting indicators specified in Annex 1 of the PRSP: “Poverty Reduction Targets”.
Accelerated progress made on implementingthe PRSP and achievingthe “Poverty Reduction Targets” outlined in Annex 1o f the PRSP, particularly with respect to achievementsin the healthand education sectors.