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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

hostile. Setbacks: Concerns that a bad agreement could fund loggers and lead to corruption. Outlook: Good. No final agreement but all parties determined to deliver one.

FINANCE: Plan: To raise $100bn a year by 2020 for developing countries affected by climate change, and set up a giant carbon fund. Progress: Good. Financiers confident money can be found. Some of the key elements like governance of the fund and allocation of more money for adapting to the impacts of climate change – such as flooding – are heading in the right direction. Setbacks: The US and others are holding finance hostage to get concessions from China on the transparency of monitoring emissions cuts. Outlook: Close to agreement. This could be one of the deliverables at Cancún. Developing countries will have to agree to a large tranche of risky market-driven money rather than guaranteed public funds, but look like keeping control over the funds. Comment: Tim Gore, Oxfam climate change adviser: "This is achievable. A fair climate fund could make a huge difference in ensuring that people suffering the impacts of climate change get the help they need and will help put the negotiations back on track towards a global deal."

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER: Plan: To reach agreement so all countries have access to new low-carbon technologies. Progress: Talk of regional or international centres to provide advice and information. Setbacks: Not many. Considered relatively easy to achieve Outlook: Good but probably to be concluded in 2011.

KYOTO PROTOCOL: Plan: To get rich countries to sign up to extending the Kyoto protocol and state their plans for emissions cuts. Progress: Backwards. Setbacks: Japan has stated categorically that it will not sign up to a new period, and other countries like Russia, Australia and Canada are reluctant to give positions away. Outlook: Critical. Kyotyo protocol is totemic issue for developing countries who say it is the only legally binding treaty forcing rich countries to cut emissions.

LOOPHOLES: Plan: Close loopholes in negotiating texts that could mean a rise emissions. Progress: None. EU, Australia, Russia New Zealand and Canda are trying to open more loopholes. Setbacks: If major loopholes in forestry, land use and unused permits to emit carbon are not closed, some rich countries may need to take no action to cut emissions. Outlook: No prospects for agreement.

VERIFICATION: Plan: Commit to an international program by which countries would monitor, report and verify one another's progress on emission reduction commitments and climate aid pledges. Progress: China and the US have indicated they are prepared to compromise, and an Indian compromise proposal on self-financed actions at home is shaping up as a deal-maker. Countries are now discussing setting up a new oversight body for long term finance. Setbacks: Rich countries want to be allowed to measure, and verify actions taken by developing countries to combat climate change. Equally, poor countries want to be certain rich country money comes on non top of official aid. Outlook: Significant steps so far suggest there could be a breakthrough.”1106

WikiLeaks cables reveal how US manipulated its way to the Copenhagen Accord. Guardian: “US diplomatic cables reveal how the US seeks dirt on nations opposed to its approach to tackling global warming; how financial and other aid is used by countries to gain political backing; how distrust, broken promises and creative accounting dog negotiations; and how the US mounted a secret global diplomatic offensive to overwhelm opposition to the controversial "Copenhagen accord", the unofficial document that emerged from the ruins of the Copenhagen climate change summit in 2009. …. But intelligence gathering was not just one way. On 19 June 2009, the state department sent a cable detailing a "spear phishing" attack on the office of the US climate change envoy, Todd Stern, while talks with China on emissions took place in Beijing. Five people received emails, personalised to look as though they came from the National Journal. An attached file contained malicious code that would give complete control of the recipient's computer to a hacker. While the attack was unsuccessful, the department's cyber threat analysis division noted: "It is probable intrusion attempts such as this will persist".”1107

Vestas: The European picture for wind energy is bleak. FT: “The boss of the world’s biggest wind turbine manufacturer, Vestas, has warned that the wind energy sector in Europe remains fairly stagnant, in remarks that deal a blow to governments’ hopes of constructing new industries around renewable technologies. … Even with government support, Engel warned that manufacturing wind turbines in northern Europe is simply too expensive - hence Vestas’ decision to cut 3,000 jobs. This will be especially disappointing for the UK, which hopes to build a whole industry on the back of offshore wind, even spending £60m to regenerate ports so the right infrastructure can be built. The government predicted 70,000 jobs would be generated on the back of that decision - that figure looks less certain now.1108

Ten companies have now publicly taken action against use of tar sands. FT: “Even as the world’s oil and gas companies continue to tap into Canada’s oil sands, the movement against using the carbon-intensive fuel generated from them continues to grow. ForestEthics, which has been campaigning against the use of oil sands-generated fuel, says it now has 10 companies who have publicly taken action against the use of oil sands or other high-impact fuels. … the fact that companies are continuing to press against the use of the high-carbon fuel is interesting, particularly since the movement against carbon seems to have otherwise disappeared. Indeed, even the Obama Administration has resisted pressure to stop the construction of new pipelines to bring the fuel into the US. … Just this week, BP, the UK oil company, confirmed it was going to move forward in the region despite earlier efforts to stay away. The oil companies are betting the momentum against their fuel will never be such that it will actually block the sale. As Shell has said, there will be a market for the fuel - if not in the US, then beyond. Sadly for efforts to curb carbon emissions, that is probably true.”1109

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