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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

Westwood says deepwater oil production has soared from under two million barrels per day in 2000 to 8 mb/d in 2010, almost 10 per cent of global consumption, and must rise further. Chairman John Westwood: “They can't ban deepwater because the industry has nowhere else to go.” 500 deepwater wells were drilled in 2009, costing up to $100m each. The Macondo field probably contains less than 50 million barrels – an oilfield minnow. Analysts Newedge USA say that if Obama’s moratorium is in place for long, oil supply could suffer a shortfall of up to one mb/d by 2016 to 2018.305

Solar printing-press company suggests it can cut PV costs by 90%. Omar Cheema, co-founder and chief executive of Solar Press, claims a breakthrough at Imperial College that produces an “ink” made from three electrical materials dissolved in a solvent. Deposited on to panels by a high-speed printing machine, passed through an oven, the solvents evaporate, leaving behind circuits that react with sunlight to generate electric currents. Cheema estimates cost reduction by as much as 80%, and the ability to produce between 200 and 400 square metres of solar cells in one hour and 24,000 square metres of solar panels in 12 days. That would mean production of nine to ten gigawatts a year: around the current output of the solar power industry. The Carbon Trust invested £1.5m a year ago to fund its spinout from Imperial College. Cheema is looking for several million more to ramp up production. “We believe we can be profitable by the end of next year,” he says. “We we need only $10m [£6.8m] in total before investors start to see a return. That’s because there is no capital outlay.” Solar Press aims to start commercial operations with lighting in the developing world.306

10.5.10. €750bn Eurozone resecue package agreed by Finance Ministers. Stock markets leap across Europe as the ECB emraces quantitative easing.307

Mood at annual Offshore Technology Conference unaffected by oil spill. FT.com “Perhaps ironically, the same week saw a big offshore drilling conference in Houston pull in record crowds. Although the organisers of OTC said the Deepwater Horizon event affected the “mood and tone of the event,” it didn’t appear to put a huge dampener on things, judging from the Houston Chronicle’s extensive coverage. On the first day, “discussion centered on what went wrong rather than concern about the future of deep water drilling” and that there was no indication of companies being “spooked” by the incident enough to reconsider offshore drilling and production. Attendees were getting their shoes shined and fending off strip club promotions, while the disaster was undoubtedly a big topic of conversation, a small protest outside the conference on Thursday elicited little response.”308

BP spill may have been due to methane hydrates: escaping gas blowing out steel casing cement. A presentation by Halliburton last month pointed to the dangers.309

11.5.10. BP, Transocean and Halliburton execs try to blame each other each in Congressional testimony. They are ticked off by Lisa Murkowski, the ranking Republican on the committee and senator from Alaska. “I would suggest to all three of you that we are all in this together because this incident will have an impact on the energy policy of our country,” she ys. “If you can’t convince people that you can operate safely, not only will BP not be out there, but the Transoceans won’t be out there to drill the rigs and the Halliburtons won’t be out there cementing.310 FT: “Essentially, the testimonies go something like this: BP: Why did the BOP fail? Transocean: Were there problems with the cementing and casings? Halliburton: We did what BP asked us to The regulator: Better testing standards needed for shear ram, cementing and other factors The academic: Why did multiple blowout barriers fail, and was there human error?311

Methane explosions in Russia’s largest coal mine kill 52 with 38 still missing. FT: “One miner interviewed at the scene said he didn’t understand how the blast could have happened as they had just installed new German ventilators and British methane detectors. The Raspadskaya Coal Company’s mine is the highest-producing coal mine in Russia, but also one of the deepest, with 311km of tunnels, which makes it especially vulnerable to methane gas build up. Despite government pledges to compensate families of dead miners with roughly 1m roubles apiece, many relatives were bitter about the way they have been treated. “We send our sons to die in these holes, and for kopeks,” said the mother of one miner who declined to give her name. “There is no other work to do here. Only the mine. They have no choice.”312

Cities “charging ahead” with EVs, WSJ reports. “The electrification efforts aren't limited to the usual suspects—traditionally green cities like San Francisco and Seattle. Efforts are also under way in places like Orlando, Indianapolis and Memphis, Tenn., where the motor vehicle is the main mode of transportation—and where electric cars will likely meet their ultimate success or failure.” “If it can work in Houston, it can work anywhere,” says James Tillman, assistant director of the city of Houston's finance department. e.g. “Nissan Motor Co. is crafting alliances with municipalities and utilities in the 15 to 20 markets where it will initially launch the Leaf, a compact hatchback. As part of the effort, Electric Transportation Engineering Corp., a Nissan partner, will install more than 11,000 charging stations in Arizona, California, Oregon, Tennessee and Washington state, using a $100 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy. More than half will be public stations, and a few hundred of those will be "fast charging," able to charge a vehicle in minutes instead of hours.” Note: Cars charge twice as quickly from a 220-volt outlet as from a standard 110-volt outlet, which can take more than 12 hours for a full charge.313

IEA says solar could be generating 20-25% of world electricity (9,000 TWh pa) by 2050. They launch their solar PV and CSP roadmaps in Valencia today. “With effective policies in place, PV on residential and commercial buildings will achieve grid parity – i.e. with electricity grid retail prices – by 2020 in many regions. PV will become competitive at utility-scale in the sunniest regions by 2030 and provide 5% of global electricity.” PV would do 11% of global electricity by 2050, the IEA figures.314

12.5.10. IEA warns against US oil spill over-reaction. “A knee-jerk reaction by regulators, banning new offshore licensing altogether, as some are proposing, risks pushing companies to ever more precarious locations in search of hydrocarbons. The law of unintended consequences may apply,” the IEA says in its monthly market report released on Wednesday.315

Mark Jacobson of Stanford interviewed by FT.com on his 100% global renewable power modelling. The engineering professor, author with Mark Delucchi of a paper on the subject in Scientific American, says most of the response has been positive. Other views: “Why waste your time on biofuels, where the air pollution is the same or higher than fossil fuels — so people will still die? It just seems a waste of effort. Internal combustion engines are only 15 - 20 per cent efficient, so it just makes sense to use electricification, plug-to-wheel efficiencies of electric vehicles are 75-86 per cent.” “There are two types of concentrated solar;

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