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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

roofs and 15% of facades are suitable, and 1,500 GW could installed on them, generating around 1,400 TWh annually. The European Performance of Buildings Directive could help the EU get on this general road, when it comes into force in 2012. The EPBD requires all new buildings to be zero carbon by 2020, and PV must inevitably play a key role in that.529

95% of global electricity consumption could come from renewables by 2050, the European Renewable Energy Council concludes in a study with Greenpeace. Updating their 2007 study, they lift the renewable contribution from 70%. The study foresees solar PV providing 33% of global electricity by 2050, making it the number one energy source. The study assumes all countries use german-style feed-in tariffs, played out over 20 years. Solar PV electricity costs by 2025 would then be 5-10 cents per kWh.530

PV depresses electricity prices and so “threatens” traditional utilities in Germany, a study from the Arrhenius Institute in Hamburg argues. The reason is that utilities reap their best profits at times of peak demand, when pricing is based on the most expensive electricity being produced at that time. This is how they raise capital for further power-plant investments. But at these times – midday and in the afternoon – PV is performing best. The study proposes a radical solution: that either the rules are changed, or PV is capped at 500MW to 3 GW per year in Germany.531

Photon 2010 global PV forecast: 23 GW supply, 19 GW modules shipped and 19 GW of installations. Solar cell manufacturers sharply expand capacity as PV industry continues bullish expansion. Generally low stock prices, and stagnant profitability, do not seem to be denting overall confidence. Photon now predicts 23 GW of supply, 19 GW of modules shipments and 19 GW in installations in 2010.

Ex Intel CEO Andy Grove argues for US protectionism in a long essay in Bloomberg magazine. “Bay Area unemployment is even higher than the 9.7 percent national average. Clearly, the great Silicon Valley innovation machine hasn’t been creating many jobs of late -- unless you are counting Asia, where American technology companies have been adding jobs like mad for years. The underlying problem isn’t simply lower Asian costs. It’s our own misplaced faith in the power of startups to create U.S. jobs.” It’s the scale-up phase where the jobs are created.  When Intel and others exploded into the digital revolution, that could be done in the States. That was before China opened for serious business. Now? “What kind of a society are we going to have if it consists of highly paid people doing high-value-added work -- and masses of unemployed?” “….Our fundamental economic beliefs, which we have elevated from a conviction based on observation to an unquestioned truism, is that the free market is the best economic system -- the freer, the better. Our generation has seen the decisive victory of free-market principles over planned economies. So we stick with this belief, largely oblivious to emerging evidence that while free markets beat planned economies, there may be room for a modification that is even better.” “…Unemployment is corrosive. If what I’m suggesting sounds protectionist, so be it.”532

2.7.10. “BP braces for shake-up at the top”: FT front page headline. “Investors are braced for a clear-out of BP’s leadership once its leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico is capped, which could come in the next few weeks, according to several leading shareholders and people close to the group.” Tope ten investors have objections to the performance of the chairman, and think the CEO’s departire is essential.533

BP brushes off call by Co-op to keep away from ecologically sensitive areas. “When the leak is plugged and we return to normal we will be carrying out an assessment of where the new BP goes from here. We will – like the rest of the industry – be working out how we can do things differently in terms of safety but not where we do them,” says a BP spokesman in London. “The position is the same now as it was at the strategy update earlier in the year. We are committed to three core areas of deep water oil, unconventional gas and enhanced recovery on super-sized fields. The world needs oil to meet growing demand and total risk aversion would just drive up prices.”534

Shell drags the FSTE 100 down to a 10 month low on talk that analysts are cutting their forecasts based on the Gulf drilling moratorium, maintenance issues in Canada, and problems in Nigeria.535

EDF faces “expropriation” and inquest on “ballooning” costs of keep nuclear plants open. Bloomberg: “Electricite de France SA, Europe’s biggest power generator, is facing demands to justify ballooning cost estimates for extending the lives of French nuclear reactors as the government opens the market to competitors. ….EDF will have to spend about 600 million euros ($750 million) on each of its 58 reactors to keep them in service for more than four decades, according to Chief Executive Officer Henri Proglio. That’s 50 percent more than an estimate given earlier this year. The utility will have to fork out almost 35 billion euros to keep aging plants in working order, the CEO has said.” A draft law under scrutiny in the Senate would require EDF to sell about a quarter of its power to GDF and others. Proglio calls it “expropriation.”536

3.7.10. To replace US offshore oil with renewables, 195 Californias or 74 Texases would be needed. Chris Nelder: “Federal offshore Gulf of Mexico has been our last great hope for domestic oil production against a four-decade declining trend. Offshore oil now accounts for 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd), or over 30%, of our domestic production of 5.5 mbpd. What would it take to substitute wind for offshore oil? At 5.8 MBtu heat value in a barrel of oil and 3412 BTU in a kWh, 1.7 mbpd is equivalent to 2.9 billion kWh per day, or 1,059 billion kWh a year. By comparison, total 2008 wind generation was 14.23 billion kWh in Texas, and 5.42 billion kWh in California. Therefore, to replace our offshore oil with wind, you’d need 195 Californias, or 74 Texases of wind, and probably 20 years to build it. Then there are some not-so-simple facts. ….Our only defense against the crushing weight of these forces will be to aggressively improve efficiency.”537

4.7.10. Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah orders a halt to oil exploration operations in the Kingdom. So the official Saudi Press Agency, or SPA, reported yesterday. “I was heading a cabinet meeting and told them to pray to God the Almighty to give it a long life," King Abdullah tells Saudi scholars studying in Washington. “I told them that I have ordered a halt to all oil explorations so part of this wealth is left for our sons and successors God willing.” A senior oil ministry official, who declined to be named, tells Zawya Dow Jones the king's order isn't an outright ban but rather means future exploration activities should be carried out wisely.538

Macondo relief well is only a few days from the pipe, and “one shot” moment of truth. Wayne Pennington, chair of geophysical engineering at Michigan Tech University: “They pretty much have one shot. Once they hit it and they try to kill it they really just have that one chance.” Guardian: “One wrong move as engineers break through the cement and steel pipe of the Macondo well could increase the torrent of oil into the Gulf. In the worst case scenario, it could even trigger a blow-out in the relief well.”539

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