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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

Development assistance flows for renewables jumped to more than $5bn in 2009, up from around $2 billion in 2008. The largest providers are the World Bank Group, Germany’s KfW, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. Dozens of other development agencies provide growing amounts of loans, grants, and technical assistance.587

UK Banks pledge to investigate why credit has failed to flow to small businesses in the downturn.  In a meeting, Cable and Osborn demanded assurance that credit will start to flow again. They need the private sector to expand, as the public sector contracts in the face of cuts.588

JP Morgan Chase sets aside $5.8bn to pay investment bankers for six months. Its bonus pool is down 3% on the same period last year, although revenues fell 7%.589

Goldman Sachs settles with SEC to the tune of $550m. This fine allows it to continue neither admitting or denying that it misled investors in a $1bn mortgage-backed security. This is the biggest fine ever imposed on a Wall Street bank, but it amounts to around a week’s worth of trading revenues for Goldman.590

FT Energy Source on why the tech revolution isn’t a template for an energy revolution. “The idea that the great leaps made by IT and networking technologies in the past decade can be easily transferred to the looming energy challenge is shallow and misleading. As Vaclav Smil, a prominent energy writer and professor at the University of Manitoba, wrote: I have named this delusion Moore’s curse because (unlike the crowding of transistors on a microchip) it is fundamentally (that is thermodynamically) impossible for the machines and processes that now constitute the complex infrastructure of global energy extraction, conversion, transportation and transmission to double their capacity or performance, microchip-like, every 18-24 months. There are several reasons: Coming up with new energy systems doesn’t offer fun or lucrative new services. ….. Energy is more important …..Energy transitions are hindered by the built environment Information technology is not only beguiling, it can increase productivity exponentially.”z591

Wall St is not ignoring peak oil, FT Energy Source argues. “Google ‘peak oil funds’ to see how many investment managers are basing their strategy around this. Oil market traders can’t ignore the question of peaking oil production either, because the supply/demand balance is intrinsically bound up with oil prices.”  …. “Sceptics of this argument will point out that information about global reserves is opaque, particularly from Saudi Arabia and other Opec nations. That is a very good point. But market participants know this. Their jobs involve poring over reports such as the IEA’s 2008 oil field survey, which made clear that its decline rates were estimates based on a sample of fields. Markets price that uncertainty in. Look at prices: crude oil has remained well above $70 for much of the past 12 months, a price point that baffled many commentators. Why should oil prices reach what are historically high prices at a time when emergence from global recession was far from assured?” … “None of this is to say that increasingly scarce and difficult to obtain oil won’t affect markets and the wider economy. And large parts of the analyst community have missed other looming problems, like the 2007-08 subprime crisis. But the likelihood of Wall Street being completely blindsided by oil supply problems seems remote.”592

“The future is gas and unconventionals,” FT Energy Source observes. Shell has almost arrived at its stated goal of gas accounting for half upstream production by 2012, according to the latest Wood Mackenzie research.593

Business leaders (but not at Kingfisher) hit at tougher CO2 target. FT: Business groups across the European Union react to the suggestion in the FT by German, French and British ministers to raise the targets for carbon emissions cuts to 30% by 2020. They choose words like  “absurd”, “alarming” and “naïve.” But Ian Cheshire, group chief executive of Kingfisher, says: “The move to a 30 per cent target is a welcome one and may prove to be a very positive step towards achieving a global deal [on climate change] in Cancun this December.” He says there is “a strong appetite among the public to reduce” their emissions.594

16.7.10. BP closes valves on the new cap, stopping the leak from Macondo well for the first time since April. BP says pressure has been rising steadily inside the well, offering hope there were no leaks below the sea bed that would allow oil to escape, but is still too low to remove uncertainty about the condition of the well. Tests continue. FT: “Once the well has been shut off, the remaining visible oil on the surface could take two months to clean up, the US Coast Guard has suggested.” …. “Even if no more oil now flows into the Gulf, more than 4m barrels may have been spilt, making this by far the largest such incident ever in US waters.” …. “The cap is equipped with a blow-out preventer, which BP has used to shut the well completely. If the blow-out preventer fails to keep the leak in check during the test to shut the well, the containment system is big enough to collect all the oil leaking and direct it through tubes to containment vessels.” … “By shutting off all the leaking oil, BP risked causing another leak elsewhere. such as around the well head. For this reason, it will move slowly, stopping every six hours to test for any sign of leaks. It also will suspend drilling two relief wells, designed to permanently block the well, as a precaution during this period.” … “The first of two relief wells designed to permanently block the well is expected to be finished early next month. The new cap will probably be reopened in the meantime, but BP aims to capture all the oil that would subsequently begin to flow again.595

EC Energy Commisioner pressures UK government to put a moratorium on drilling in the North Sea until Macondo’s lessons are learned. DECC says this is unnecessary.596

Senate version of US climate bill falls short of Obama’s Copenhagen promise. They want cap and trade, on the power sector only, rather than a green new deal across the entire economy, as approved by the House of Representatives last year. A cap on utlity emissions (a third of the US total) could cut only 12-14% from 2005 levels, not the 17% signed up to in Copenhagen. (And note most other countries use 1990 as baseline. Against that baseline, 17% = 4%).597

18.7.10. Pressure in the Macondo well is not high enough, suggesting additional leakage. Observer: “Thad Allen, the retired Coast Guard admiral overseeing the response effort, said that pressure of about 7,500 pounds per square inch would show the well was intact, while pressure that lingered below 6,000 psi would indicate it had been damaged and could be leaking. The pressure on Friday night remained at about 6,700 psi and was rising only fractionally. Allen has told BP to step up monitoring for any seabed breaches and gather additional seismological data to detect any pockets of oil in the layers of rock and sediment around the well.”598

BP ordered the owner of the Deepwater Horizon rig to overhaul crucial safety equipment in China, the Observer reports: a part of the blow-out preventer that subsequently failed to activate and is at the centre of investigations into what caused the disaster. Experts report that this saves money and is common in the

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