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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

28.7.10.NOAA finds ten unimpeachable “human fingerprints” on climate change. In the first major piece of new research since the “Climategate” fiasco, NOAA in the US has found that data from ten key climate indicators all point to the same finding: that the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, marine air temperature, sea level, ocean heat, humidity, and tropospheric temperature. Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the northern hemisphere.645 646

Tony Hayward,“too busy” to attend Senate hearings on Lockerbie link, infuriates Senate further. “I have a busy week,” he says. FT: “Speaking to journalists at the company's London headquarters, Hayward claimed that he had been unfairly "demonised and vilified" in the US, where Barack Obama and other politicians have been severely critical of BP's actions and taken exception to some of Hayward's public comments.” … "I believe for it to move on in the United States it needs new leadership and it is for that reason I have stood down as the CEO. I think BP's response to this tragedy has been a model of good social corporate responsibility. It has mounted an unprecedented [spill] response.” … "Life isn't fair ... sometimes you step off the pavement and get hit by a bus.”647

Unlimited liability for Gulf spills would kill development says ConocoPhilips’ CEO. FT: “Jim Mulva, ConocoPhillips’ chief executive, says that the umlimited, liability some in Congress are proposing to punish operators for further spills in the Gulf of Mexico is inappropriate. That would raise the question of how many of the smaller companies operating in the Gulf could afford to get back out there to work following the lifting of the moratorium and even whether the risk reward equation would favor going out into the waters again for the biggest of companies.”648

Gulf of Mexico's deepwater oil industry is built on the amazing nature of salt deposits and their ability to form traps for oil, while suppressing temperature so it can be found deeper. “The earth is like a refinery,” one expert says. “With more temperature and pressure, more of the heavier hydrocarbons are cooked away. But the thick salt above the reservoir allows the oil to survive." The advances in understanding this in the last 25 years mean that “there are decades of exploration left in the Gulf of Mexico.” But pressures are high in these wells.649

29.7.10. Shell chief declines to rule out legal action against BP over post-spill regulatory crackdown, which has cost Shell tens of millions of dollars. He also defends deep-water drilling and sees no need for changes to Shell operations prior to the release of the accident investigation findings. 650

Staff of The Oil Drum conduct a critical review of Matt Simmons’s claims about the Macondo spill. 1. The real leak is seven miles away: “There is no evidence that the well recently capped by BP is not the original Macondo well, or that the original well is still flowing with no casing.” 2. Oil is flowing at 120,000 barrels/day: “The flow rates Simmons postulates are far beyond any well seen to date in the OCS.” 3. The real spill has caused a lake of oil larger than Washington state: “The area of Washington state is 71,303 square miles. If the lake is 500 feet thick, this would imply 177 trillion barrels of oil in the lake, vs. 2-4 trillion barrels estimated total reserves plus production to date for the world. Also, claims of a quantity of oil this large are not consistent with Simmons' claim of 120,000 barrels/day from the "real" well bore. For example, at this flow rate for 90 days, a spill the size of WA would only be 10 microns thick (.01 mm).” 4. Methane is lethal and toxic: “All of us inhale methane every day. While methane is clearly flammable and it is a potent greenhouse gas, it is completely non-toxic. Methane, like the nitrogen that makes up 78% of the earth’s atmosphere, is a simple asphyxiant. What that means is that it could kill you by displacing oxygen, but methane itself is non-toxic (unlike carbon monoxide, for example).” 5. Use of a small bore nuclear device is the “only option” to stop the flow of oil: “The claims made by Simmons and documented in this essay are not credible. Some - such as the idea that methane is toxic - are factual errors. Other claims, such as an open gusher that BP is covering up, defy logic. How Simmons will respond if no evidence of his claims emerges remains to be seen.”651

Pipeline leak deals blow to Canada’s oil sands industry. About 4m litres of Alberta crude has spilled into waterways in southern Michigan.652

French government tells Areva and EDF to ‘get along’, or else lose more foreign nuclear contracts. FT: “Mr Proglio (EDF Chairman) has publicly questioned Areva’s independence and insisted that EDF, the state-owned utility which operates France’s 58 nuclear reactors, was best placed to lead France’s nuclear industry.653

Three years on, the markets, bankers, and ratings agencies are masters again, Philip Stephens writes in the FT. “The markets (and the bankers) still rule. … Finance, we were assured, would be pulled from its gilded pedestal. Main Street would reassert its primacy over Wall Street. The laisser faire capitalism of the Washington Consensus had had its day. The world’s richest economies would turn their minds to nurturing real, as opposed to financial, engineering. … There has also, of course, been one really big change: hundreds of billions of dollars in toxic assets that once sat on the books of the banks have been piled on top of the deficits caused by the crash-induced recession. Families are paying the bankers’ bills through rising taxes, shabbier public services and higher unemployment. Political resolve has given way to fear. … As they struggle to reduce huge budget deficits, western politicians almost everywhere are in thrall to global capital markets. David Cameron has made no bones about it – Britain’s prime minister says he is slashing spending on the welfare state and paring back the nation’s global role because the Bank of England has told him that the rating agencies would be satisfied with nothing less. The rating agencies – remember them? Some may recall that these very same organisations were deeply complicit in the chicanery that saw worthless debt instruments repackaged as top-notch financial securities. I am sure I heard the politicians say they would be cut down to size. It never happened. The rating agencies never repented; and now they are masters again.”654

Cameron makes free trade appeal to India on to day trade mission with 29 UK CEOs and chairmen. FT: “David Cameron, the UK prime minister, on Thursday appealed for New Delhi’s support to defeat forces of economic nationalism that threatened to close down the world trading system at a time of economic weakness.” Mr Cameron, on the final day of a two-day visit to India, tried to focus attention on the UK’s desire to gain improved market access to India’s fast growing economy….655

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