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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

of thermal coal needed to fire their electricity plants and power economic expansion. … Indian and Chinese companies have secured a series of billion-dollar deals in recent months, agreeing to invest heavily in the construction of railways, power plants and ports, in exchange for coal. … Analysts say the model is likely to become more common as India and China aggressively try to make up a shortage of hundreds of millions of tonnes of coal in coming years.”797

Europe, adding 40% new capacity from wind p.a., is on course for 15% wind electricity by 2020. Guardian: “Europe is installing more wind power capacity than any other form of energy, and wind is leading the way to making the continent's electricity generation 100% renewable by 2050. Today, only five percent of Europe's electricity comes from wind. But that will not be the case for long. For the past two years, 40 percent of all new electricity generating capacity in Europe came from wind turbines (75 percent of the [wind] installations last year were in five countries: Spain, Germany, Italy, France, and the U.K). From Spain to Sweden, so many new turbines are being erected that Europe is on target to produce 15 percent of its electricity from wind by 2020. By 2050, half of Europe's electricity is expected to come from wind.” Christian Kjaer, CEO of the European Wind Energy Association, says nearly 200,000 people are currently employed in the European wind power sector. By 2020, Kjaer estimates 450,000 Europeans will have jobs in the wind power industry. Kjaer: The European Union targets mean “that we need to increase the share of renewables in electricity from currently about 15 percent — that includes 10 percent for large hydro and about 5 percent wind energy — to 35 percent by 2020. Our large hydro can't increase much more, because it's already utilized. So that means if you take large hydro out, you need to increase non-large hydro renewables from currently 5 percent to about 25 percent. … We believe that we will reach about 230 gigawatts of wind by the end of 2020, and that's up from approximately 80 gigawatts today. That will produce somewhere between 14 and 17 percent of our electricity, depending on the electricity demand. We need to install approximately 9.5 gigawatts of new wind capacity each year between now and 2020. Now, given that we installed more than 10 gigawatts last year, technically this is not a big challenge. … The majority of this will be met by wind turbines on land. Offshore is still more expensive, but we do expect that to play an increasing role as well. 798

CEO of the European Wind Energy Association: 100% EU renewable electricity by 2050 is do-able. We believe we can meet 50 percent of Europe's electricity demand by 2050 with wind energy. Denmark is currently at 20 percent — they have an aspiration to reach 50 percent in Denmark by 2020 or 2025. Can we power our economy solely on renewables? I certainly believe so, and this goes back to something I said at the beginning of this interview. Almost two-thirds of our new capacity is from renewables. That figure was about 20 percent in the year 2000. So in nine years we've gone from 20 percent to 62 — by 2020 of course we can get to 100 percent of new capacity. And if we can get in 2020 to a situation where all new capacity is renewables, then we will, by definition almost, have 100 percent renewable electricity by 2050 because all the other power plants will be taken off [line]. So I'm quite confident that it can be done, but it would require a major change in our infrastructure. The infrastructure here is the absolute key to this — we need to build an infrastructure that is different. But, again, our infrastructure in Europe is aging — we haven't been building power lines since the '60s or '70s. It needs to be replaced anyway. So we need to make sure that the infrastructure is changed in a way that it accommodates 100 percent renewable electricity by 2050.”799

China overtakes U.S. on renewable-energy investor ranking, E&Y says. Bloomberg: “China overtook the U.S. to lead a quarterly index of the most attractive countries for renewable energy projects for the first time, according to a list compiled by the global accounting firm Ernst & Young. …. (It) has set itself a goal of generating 15 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020. It almost doubled consumer subsidies for renewable-power generation in the second half of last year to $545 million, the most recent period reported. … In the second quarter of 2010, China attracted $11.5 billion in asset-financing for clean technologies, more than Europe and the U.S. combined, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. …The Ernst & Young ranking includes 27 countries, with Germany, India, Italy, the U.K., France, Spain, Canada and Portugal completing the top 10 behind China and the U.S.”800

Few VC investments in solar PV have worked yet, Greentechmedia says. “The normal metrics for grading VCs -- IRR, quality of exits, etc. -- don't apply to today's solar investors, at least not in any meaningful way.  The fact is that very little, if any, of the billions of VC dollars put into solar in the last few years have yielded the type of results that VCs look for.  You'd have to go back to SunPower, Suntech, First Solar, Evergreen Solar and GT Solar to cite solar firms that have yielded successful IPO exits. Those companies, save for Evergreen, were not funded by your standard Sand Hill Road-type venture firms. The Communist Party was Suntech's largest investor while members of the Walton Family sustained First Solar. T.J. Rodgersrescued SunPower with a $750,000 investment (written on a personal check) in 2001 after the company got rejected up and down the valley.  There has been some M&A.  Applied Materials has made some strategic acquisitions, as have Suntech, SunPower and First Solar.  But few of those acquisitions were VC-funded, and few yielded the 10X returns that VCs bank on.”801

UK heat pumps fail as “renewable” energy devices, EST study finds. Guardian: “Badly installed heat pumps would not be recognised as renewable energy under proposed European standards, says the Energy Saving Trust. Government plans to subsidise green heating are challenged today by the largest ever field study of "heat pump" devices in the UK, which reveals 80% perform so badly they would not qualify as renewable energy under proposed European standards. … The Trust's peer-reviewed study, the largest of its kind in the UK, found the 83 devices it monitored for a year were underperforming. About 87% didn't achieve a system efficiency of 3 which the Trust considers the level of a "well-performing" system (higher is better). And 80% failed to meet 2.6, the level being considered under the EU Renewable Energy Directive for classification as a renewable source of energy.802

Alex Salmond unveils plan to turn Scotland into “world's first hydro-economy.” Guardian: “Proposed legislation would allow state-owned Scottish Water to use vast landbank and pipe network for renewable energy projects.”803

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