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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

16.9.10. Ed Miliband’s five steps for the government on climate change: “Firstly, we should be pushing for agreements on finance and forestry at Cancún. Instead of cutting budgets for climate diplomacy the government should push the Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing to make immediate progress on long-term finance. Under Labour, the UK took the lead in arguing for a significant transfer of finance from the developed to the developing world. … Secondly, the government should not raid the UK aid budget to pay for climate change projects. … Thirdly, the government should be pushing the EU to commit to a second period of the Kyoto protocol, which enshrines developed countries' responsibility to cut their emissions first and fastest. This would send an important signal to developing countries. Fourthly we need do a lot more to build a clean energy economy in the UK. … The coalition can start by protecting the feed-in tariff scheme and the renewable heat incentive, supporting the £60m ports competition to boost our offshore wind industry and announcing a green investment bank with public and private capital. They should also confirm that the four carbon capture and storage demonstration projects are going ahead. … Finally, it is people demanding change that has, throughout history, changed the world. The global campaign at Copenhagen achieved a lot. We would never have had targets from so many countries and the agreement on finance without this sort of mobilisation. Now we need to reinvigorate the campaign for Cancún and beyond.”851

Hayward admits ‘lack of rigour’ in gulf spill. FT: Tony Hayward “admitted a “lack of rigour” in overseeing contractors on the Deepwater Horizon rig during a contrite performance before a UK parliamentary committee. … The company’s internal inquiry into the disaster shouldered much of the blame, but added that Transocean, which owned the drilling rig that exploded, and Halliburton, which was responsible for cementing the Macondo well, should share responsibility. However, Mr Hayward told the UK parliament’s energy and climate change committee: “What we have is a lack of rigour and a lack of oversight of contractors. The contractors here were world class and you might have thought they wouldn’t have needed that level of oversight, but it was clearly something that was found wanting.”852 Note: New Scientist analysis points to failure of BP to discuss its own risk-management structure in the internal review is itself a classic example of groupthink at work.853 (L)

BP’s competitors in the US tempt fate with provocative advertising “throwing BP under a bus”. FT: er a full-page advertisement in the Houston Chronicle from BP’s peers - ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and ConocoPhillips. “The ad was for thenew oil containment system this group of four have agreed to spend $1bn building to ensure there is never again such a disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. From the ad:Engineer it.  Build it.  And make sure it is never needed. While we don’t yet have all the facts regarding the incident in the Gulf of Mexico, we do know that such tragedies are avoidable.  By starting with properly designed wells, by following established procedures and best practices, by conducting relentless inspections, tests and drills, with frequent thorough training of personnel, accidents like this should never happen.’ One analysts view on this: “Bottom Line - Industry peers throwing BP under the bus…and backing the bus up and running over one more time”.” 854

Coal challenge looming in China and India means CCS is imperative, IEA says. NYT: “If current trends continue, coal use will decrease in Europe by 2050 but will more than double in China and in India, according to projections by the International Energy Agency. Even if there is a significant shift to cleaner forms of power by that date, the growth of each country will spawn enormous emissions along the way. That is why Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency, who spoke on Wednesday at Columbia University, said that when it comes to climate change, the “single most important issue is how to get China to deploy carbon capture and storage into its coal sector.” …. China, which counts itself as a developing country, say the industrialized world should underwrite such investments.855

Daniel Yergin tells WPC that peak demand as a US-Europe phenomenon only. “Daniel Yergin told 5,000 delegates attending the World Petroleum Congress meeting in Montreal this week that world energy demand will increase by 32-40 percent in the next 20 years. Yergin said “Indeed, we are seeing what we call 'peak demand,' at least in terms of oil, in North America and Europe. Oil demand will not increase in those regions and is more likely to decrease. "But it's a very different picture in emerging markets.” Yergin based his demand-growth forecast on an expansion of the global economy to $120 trillion by 2030. The International Monetary Fund estimates it will reach $81.8 trillion in 2015 from about $61.8 trillion this year. A note of rationality came from the CEO of France’s Total who said that global oil production will stabilize around 95 million b/d by 2030. He noted that producing fields are declining by 5 to 6 percent a year.” (ASPO USA notes).

18.9.10. UK Chancellor accused of £100bn economic growth gamble by Compass. The thinktank casts doubt on George Osborne's assumption that private sector investment will fill the gap left by the state and grow by well over 2% on average for the next five years. The Compass report says that a failure of unregulated financial markets caused the crisis rather than state excess.856

Surplus electricity from cellphone towers could be used to save 5 million lives every year, say Harvey Ruvin and Alice Conant in New Scientist. Cellphones are the fastest spreading technology in the world, and by 2012 there will be an estimated 639,000 off-grid cell towers in the developing world, according to the industry trade association GSMA. Some 75% of the world’s rural population are covered by signal now, and close to 100% will be by 2015. The surplus electricity could be used to power cold chains and water purification systems, so that by 2015 everyone has acces to vaccines and clean water: hence the 5 million lives saved. GSMA itself recognises this potential and has a programme, called “Community Power.” (L)857

19.9.10. BP oil spill well effectively dead, says US. FT: “On Saturday, BP used a relief well drilled to intersect with Macondo about 18,000 feet below sea level to pump in cement to seal the blown-out well. At 5.54am Central time on Sunday, tests confirmed that the cement had set properly and the well had been sealed at the bottom … No oil has flowed into the water since July 15, when BP sealed a cap to the top of the well, and a cement plug has also been pumped in from above. … BP has said it will never use the Macondo well or either of the two relief wells to produce oil. It may return later to develop the estimated 45m barrels of oil remaining in the reservoir, although such a move would be likely to provoke fierce opposition. There are still about 25,000 people working on the response, down from more than 47,000 at its peak in June. Very little oil now remains on the coasts of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi, although patches of heavy oiling remain in the beaches and wetlands on Louisiana, according to the US government. The area of the Gulf of Mexico that is closed for fishing is about 40,000 square miles, half the area that was closed at the peak of the spill.”858

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