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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

found up to 15bn barrels of oil in a deep-water field known as Libra, in a further indication of potentially enormous reserves contained in the so-called pre-salt region first discovered in 2007. If confirmed, the Libra field alone could more than double the size of Brazil’s current proven reserves of about 14bn barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent. No figure has yet been put on the entire pre-salt region, so called because its oil is trapped beneath several kilometres of seawater, rock and a hard-to-penetrate layer of salt. But people in the industry say it could contain 100bn barrels or more, enough by some measures to put Brazil on a par with Kuwait or Russia among oil producers. The ANP, the industry regulator, said the Libra field contained between 3.7bn and 15bn barrels of oil, with 7.9bn being the best estimate according to a study commissioned from Gaffney, Cline and Associates, an advisory firm. .. Petrobras, Brazil’s national oil company, last month raised $70bn in the biggest share issue ever undertaken. It will use the money to help fund a $224bn investment programme for 2010 to 2014, part of which will be dedicated to the pre-salt fields.”995

9 trillion roubles ($292 billion) necessary to maintain Russia's oil production, says Putin. FT: “The prime minister called for that level of investment over the next decade to maintain crude oil production levels at 500 million tons a year. … An agreement on developing Russia’s oil sector was reached in Samara on Thursday and anticipates a small increase of 2.2 per cent in oil production until 2020, Vedomosti reported. The new figure of 505 million tons a year will largely be met by existing production regions, according to energy minister Sergei Shmatko. But come 2020 further growth will only be possible through new deposits and technologies, Putin warned, raising the spectre of peak oil production in the mid-term future.996

How bad is the Macondo report for Halliburton? Not yet clear, says FT Energy Source. “The analyst community is divided. …. The market appears to have decided - for now at least - that an 8 per cent loss is about right for Halliburton given last night’s news. After an initial further 4 per cent drop this morning, the stock has recovered to sit almost exactly where it closed yesterday.”997

Enel’s renewable-energy IPO falls short of target. €2.6bn ($3.6bn) is raised. FT: “Enel has priced shares in Enel Green Power at €1.60 a share, the bottom end of a new, lower price range set this week in an attempt to secure backing from long-term institutional investors, people familiar with the IPO said. … The offer was over-subscribed but driven by demand from retail investors with more than 330,000 applying for shares, making it the highest demand in 10 years for a retail offer in Italy. More than 200 institutional investors applied for shares, with preference being given to long-term investors including Blackstone. Overall, demand for the shares was 1.75bn for 1.6bn shares on offer out of a total of 5bn shares. … The listing has been keenly watched as a key test of investor appetite for renewables stocks amid some concerns about European energy overcapacity and dependence on subsidies.998

Good news and bad news for the wind industry: 3,000 jobs come, 3,000 go. FT: “First came the good news - a massive investment in offshore wind in the UK. Although the UK leads the world in offshore wind generation, that is mainly because so little of it has been built anywhere. But a vote of confidence in the UK’s prospects came from three wind turbine manufacturers who announced on Monday they would set up shop on the UK’s north-east and eastern coasts. General Electric, Siemens and Gamesa are arriving, with more than £300m in investment promised and the creation of an estimated 3,000 jobs. (That is direct jobs - more will follow along the supply chain.) Then the bad news - and a touch of schadenfreude. Vestas, the world’s biggest wind turbine maker, announced poor results on Wednesday, with the loss of 3,000 jobs - most of them in its home market of Denmark, some in Sweden.”999

Wireless charging could drive electric vehicle take-up, developers say. Guardian:HaloIPT believes next generation of green cars could be charged wirelessly by parking over a transmitter pad or even using electrified roads. … The company has already trialled wireless charging with buses in New Zealand and in Milan, but there are currently no wireless charging bays in the UK and none of the car manufacturers has adopted the technology. … Despite the news this month that electric car sales in the UK had dropped by nearly 90% in two years to just 55 last year, HaloIPT sees the UK as a key market globally for electric cars.  … Starting in January, a government subsidy will offer up to £5,000 off new electric cars, which it expects will help drive sales of around 8,600 of the vehicles in 2011.”1000

Design of renewables subsidy systems is crucial to their success. FT: “For an average installation, costing about £11,000 ($17,541) to £12,000, householders could stand to make £1,200 a year, including their electricity bill savings. This potential rate of return, points out Jeremy Leggett, the founder of solar power specialist Solarcentury, exceeds that available from most banks.”1001

31.10.10. India’s rapid growth lures global investors, and coal and oil top the list of targets. FT: “Indian capital markets have arrived on the global stage after Coal India,” says Vikas Sharma, president and chief executive of Nomura in India. Under Indian rules, investors’ bids for the stock had to be fully funded, meaning they had to front up with the equivalent of a total of about $51bn in cash, says Mr Sharma. … Five years ago, mergers and acquisitions worth more than $1bn were almost unheard of in India. So far this year there have been 13 deals of this size and larger, according to figures from Dealogic. The increased deal volumes stem from higher liquidity in western markets and India’s strong growth story. The economy is expected to expand more than 8.5 per cent in the year ended March 31, compared with 7.4 per cent a year earlier – growth rates that most developed markets can only dream of. … So far this year, Indian companies have raised equity of $26.02bn, a figure approaching the full-year record of $33.99bn set in 2007, according to Dealogic. Bankers are preparing to compete over the next five weeks for the mandates of more large government deals, including the $4.3bn secondary offering of Indian Oil, the state-owned petrol refiner and retailer. The volume of India-related M&A deals this year has reached more than $67bn, nearing the 2007 record of more than $76bn, representing an extraordinary recovery from the economic crisis. … Natural resources remains one of the dominant themes, particularly coal. India’s plans to roll out more than 100,000 megawatts of power generation capacity in the coming years will require new sources of coal. 1002

BG launches £9bn project to liquify gas from coal in Australia. Guardian: “The scheme, the company's biggest investment to date, is the first of a series of 'coal seam methane' initiatives in eastern Australia. BG Group will spend $15bn (£9.3bn) on the world's first project to liquify and ship gas produced from coal deposits, the natural gas company's biggest ever investment, it was announced today . … State-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has signed the biggest supply contract with BG, and will buy 3.6m tonnes of LNG each year for 20 years. CNOOC will also take a 10% stake in the first phase of the

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