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Triple Crunch Log                                                                                                            

Gulf of Mexico. … Getting to the scene of a spill would be a challenge. The nearest major port, Dutch Harbor, is 1,300 nautical miles away from the drilling areas in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, and what few air landing strips exist are not connected to any road system.1048

China and India see what the US doesn’t - the potential of natural gas. FT: There are many reasons the US could move to stop the transfer of expertise to China and other countries, for that matter. But it remains unfortunate that it does not list among them the recognition by the US government that it must keep these resources at home for domestic use. Unless the US government sees the value in using its own gas resources, it seems likely the expertise, technology, talent and gas, itself, will slowly flow out of the country.1049

Moscow vows lethal revenge on top double agent. FT: “A high-level double agent working in the heart of Russian intelligence has defected to America after betraying a ring of deep-cover spies arrested in the US in July, a Moscow newspaper reported on Thursday. Kommersant quoted a Kremlin official as saying that the defector, identified only as “Colonel Shcherbakov”, would be hunted down by Russian assassins.The official said: “We know who he is and where he is. Do not doubt that a Mercader has been sent after him already.” The comment was an apparent reference to Ramón Mercader, the Soviet-picked assassin who in 1940 murdered Leon Trotsky, the exiled communist leader, with an ice pick in Mexico. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, had alluded to the existence of a mole within the SVR espionage agency after a meeting with the 10 returned spies, who were traded in July for four accused US and British agents in Russia. “This was the result of treason and traitors always meet a bad end,” Mr Putin said. “The special services live by their own laws and everyone knows what these laws are.”1050

12.11.10. Greenland wants $2bn upfront bond from oil firms keen to drill in its Arctic waters. Guardian: “Half a dozen energy companies – thought to include Shell, Cairn Energy, Statoil, the Danish companies Dong and Maersk Oil – are in negotiations with the Greenland government about the licensing round, the largest for years.”1051

'Peak crude oil' hit in 2006, and ‘the age of cheap oil is over,’ says IEA's chief economist. CS Monitor: “It was a looming doomsday scenario: "Peak oil" would someday hit, potentially sending food prices soaring, stock markets reeling, and countries to war to seize and protect remaining oil reserves., the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, peak crude oil already came and went unnoticed in 2006. Crisis averted, apparently.”1052

Commentary on the the IEA WEO by ODAC Trustees. Chris Skrebowski: The IEA are doing their usual, giving themselves lots of wiggle room by using three scenarios. So world primary oil demand in 2035 is 107.4mn b/d on 'Current policies scenario', 99mn b/d on 'New policies scenario' and 81mn b/d on '450 scenario'. The first is obvious, no policy change of moment, the second assumes a number of (probably unpopular) policy changes, the final one is a fantasy where radical policy options are taken and vigorously applied to minimise CO2 emissions. When they look at supply the only scenario that adds up is the 'New policies scenario' . So it appears that what they are really saying is 'business as usual' is not possible on shortfalls in likely supply. Keeping global warming (as predicted under current scientific understanding) to 2ºC or less is effectively impossible because the policy options and demand restrictions are so drastic. What they're actually saying is there will have to be a number of new policies to allow demand to match available (somewhat restricted) supply. At one level this is unsurprising but I suspect still shocking to virtually all politicians and most businesses.

Richard Miller. The growth in natural gas liquids is not really germane if your problem is filling the car, as these are gases by most definitions. Obviously there will be growth in Canadian oil sand output, but not huge amounts. Past analyses suggested that production of syncrude and bitumen might reach 6 million b/d by 2030, and this ceiling is probably still realistic. Although current projects and those in the planning stage could theoretically reach 8 million b/d by 2020, the sheer amount of investment and resources required makes this a highly stretched target. On the subject of stretch targets, Iraq production would, if all the promises of the new operators were kept, reach over 12 million b/d by 2020 - but they will be competing for the same investment as Canada so that will not happen. And Brazil is in the same hole with its sub-salt fields, hugely expensive to develop, competing for the same investment, and doubtless priced accordingly.1053

Lifting supply by 20% must involve NGL and unconventional oil …and a “veil of uncertainty.” “By its estimation, after a short dip in production, crude production will reach an “undulating plateau” of about 68 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2035. Yet strong demand growth from China, which the report estimates is now the world’s largest energy user, and elsewhere will require liquid energy supplies to not just hold steady, but to climb by more than 20 percent. Meeting that additional demand will fall entirely on unconventional oil sources like Canada’s tar sands as well as increased production of natural gas liquids. A major boost in these energy sources should be able to meet demand, but that is far from certain, Nobuo Tanaka, the agency’s executive director, told reporters in London, according to the Associated Press. “Recent events have cast a veil of uncertainty over our energy future,” Mr. Tanaka said.”1054

UK Government blinks first in UK's nuclear stand-off. Telegraph: 'No subsidy for nuclear" has been the mantra of Chris Huhne, the Liberal Democrat energy secretary, ever since he arrived at Whitehall ready to row back on his long-held blanket opposition to atomic power. The steadfast denial of public money for nuclear is baffling to the experts, who say that £40bn of new stations is clearly not – with the present subsidy regime – cost competitive with gas or coal. However, with nuclear needed to keep the lights on in the UK and the need to switch Britain's power to a lower carbon system ever more pressing, compromises are being made behind closed doors. "The Government's definition of a subsidy is literally a bag of cash delivered personally by George Osborne to each nuclear power plant," says Peter Atherton, utilities analyst at Citigroup. "This is laughable. What's going to happen will be an economic transfer of risk from company to consumer. Of course it's a subsidy."1055

14.11.10. Innocent and John Lewis break into poll of leading brands as ethics become good business. Guardian: “An upstart manufacturer of fruit smoothies and a never-knowingly-undersold retailer have edged aside stalwarts such as Marks & Spencer and Virgin from the ranks of Britain's most influential brands as the business community sets greater store by "values". The environmentally active drinks firm Innocent, which was established by three Cambridge graduates but is now controlled by Coca-Cola, will be named this week as the seventh most significant "thought leadership" brand in Britain in an annual poll that asked 1,000 opinion

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