http://www.nanog.org/mtg-0606/pdf/alain-durand.pdf IPv6 @ Comcast – Managing 100+ Million IP Addresses Alain Durand – Office of the CTO Director – IPv6 Architect NANOG 37 – June 2006
Comcast’s experience is only one of many presentations within the technical community that show a solid need to migrate to IPv6. Since this paper was written in June 2006, the calculations on address exhaustion have been revised and expanded.
When will the IPv4 address pool be exhausted?
For many years, Geoff Huston has provided a solid understanding of the state of the Internet, from a routing and IP numbering point of view. He has been active in the IETF and numerous other forums around the world. He’s provided an extensive review of IPv4 address exhaustion on his website. It’s not replicated in this document. Hurricane Electric recommends nearly every reader of this document also reviews his IPv4 Address Report and its numerical modeling. Here is a very brief summary.
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ IPv4 Address Report Geoff Huston
According to his modeling, the date that Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) is projected to run out of IPv4 address space to allocate to Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) around January 2011.
In addition, his modeling shows the date the RIRs (ARIN, RIPE, APNIC, LACNIC and AFRINIC) are projected to run out of addresses to allocate to ISPs is around November 2011. Regional registries are allocated large blocks of address space and they then provide end-users, within their geographic regions, smaller allocations.
BTW, this modeling assumes there won't be a land rush once end user organizations realize it is their last chance to get their own routable IPv4 address space, and that there won't be hoarding or speculation.
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