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spending in 2010 and relatively small amounts (10 percent or less) trickling in over 2012–19. Notable exceptions with

high spending in the out-years are the Qualified Zone Acad- emy and School Construction Bonds, with tax effects that continue for years, and the benefit increase under SNAP (or food stamps), which is now projected to be higher than preexisting law benefits through 2019. A few programs have peak spending in 2009, including Section 8 housing assis- tance and the Impact Aid education program.

Education received the largest infusion of children’s spending under ARRA, $62 billion or two-fifths of all ARRA spending on children. (Note this does not include $4.1 bil- lion appropriated for early education; both Head Start and child care assistance are classified as social services rather than education under this analysis, which follows OMB’s budget function classifications.) The education expansion was large not only in absolute terms, but also in relation to the base levels of federal education funding on children

TABLE 3

Estimated Expenditures on Children under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

(Total and Percentage Allocations Across Years)

Health

24,511

34%

45%

20%

0%

Medicaid

24,211

*

34%

45%

20%

0%

Immunization

300

15%

61%

21%

3%

Income Security

3,300

11%

60%

18%

11%

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families

2,748

*

3%

62%

21%

14%

Child support enforcement

552

50%

50%

0%

0%

Education

62,264

16%

47%

29%

8%

State Fiscal Stabilization Fund

35,849

*

23%

54%

19%

4%

Education for the disadvantaged (Title I)

13,000

6%

35%

45%

13%

Special education

12,200

6%

39%

42%

13%

School Improvement

720

1%

59%

30%

10%

Teacher quality grants

200

0%

50%

35%

15%

Statewide educational data systems

195

*

0%

32%

33%

35%

Impact Aid

100

40%

20%

26%

14%

Nutrition

27,184

9%

20%

19%

52%

SNAP/Food Stamps

26,968

*

9%

20%

19%

53%

Child nutrition

100

44%

56%

0%

0%

Special Supplemental Food (WIC)*

116

*

29%

34%

38%

0%

Social Services

5,352

10%

35%

28%

27%

Head Start (including Early Head Start)

2,100

1%

23%

30%

46%

Child Care and Development Block Grant

2,000

11%

39%

31%

20%

Foster care and adoption assistance

970

27%

54%

19%

0%

Community Services Block Grant (CSBG)

282

*

8%

28%

32%

32%

Housing

837

61%

29%

10%

0%

Section 8 Low-Income Housing Assistance

837

*

61%

29%

10%

0%

Training

1,024

13%

49%

29%

8%

WIA Youth Formula Grants

863

*

15%

50%

29%

6%

Job Corps

142

*

6%

44%

30%

20%

YouthBuild Grants

19

*

15%

50%

29%

6%

Tax Credits/Exemptions

31,449

6%

35%

28%

31%

Earned income tax credita

5,659

*

6%

53%

41%

0%

Child tax creditb

16,375

10%

50%

40%

0%

Qualified Zone Academy Bonds

1,045

0%

1%

3%

96%

Qualified School Construction Bonds

8,370

0%

1%

3%

95%

Total ARRA Expenditures on Children

155,921

16%

40%

26%

20%

Total to children (in millions)

2009

2010

2011

NEXT 8 YEARS

Outlays subtotal

146,259

(as percent of total ARRA outlays)

(23%)

17%

42%

27%

14%

-2%

4%

6%

92%

Revenue effects subtotal

9,661

(as percent of total ARRA revenue effects)

(4%)

(as percent of total ARRA expenditures)

(18%)

Source: The Urban Institute and The Brookings Institution, 2010. Authors’ estimates based on tabulations provided by the Congressional Budget Office. Notes: Estimates are in nominal dollars. For programs marked with an “*,” spending on children is only a portion of total spending. Specifically, we assumed that children received 26 percent of the ARRA increases on Medicaid, 76 percent of TANF, 67 percent of the State Fiscal Stabilization Fund in 2009 and 72 percent in 2010–19, 78 percent of state educational data systems, 49 percent of SNAP/food stamps, 87 percent of WIC, 28 percent of CSBG, 42 percent of Section 8 Low-Income Housing assistance, 53 percent of WIA Youth Formula Grants, 57 percent of Job Corps, 38 percent of Youth Build Grants, and 92 percent of the earned income tax credit. See the data appendix for more on these estimates.

  • a.

    The EITC outlay or refundable piece is $5.383 million, spread 10 percent in 2009, 50 percent in 2010, and 40 percent in 2011–19.

  • b.

    The child tax credit outlay or refundable piece is $16,405 million, also spread 10 percent, 50 percent, and 40 percent.

AN ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL EXPENDITURES ON CHILDREN

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