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FIGURE 15 Actual and Projected Outlays on Children and Other Major Items in the Federal Budget, 2006–2020

Percentage of GDP

0%

1.9%

1.9%

2.1%

2.3%

2.7%

2.5%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

4.9%

7.6%

6.3%

1.8%

1.3%

1.4%

4.3%

4.6%

4.7%

7.9%

8.9%

9.1%

Children

    • 4.2

      %

    • 3.2

      %

    • 3.6

      %

10.4%

Source: The Urban Institute and The Brookings Institution, 2010. Authors' estimates based on data from the Budget of the U.S. Government Fiscal Year 2011 and previous years and CBO projections. Note: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid excludes spending already captured as children's spending.

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

All Outlays not categorized below

Interest on the Debt

Defense

Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid

0%

5%

3%

-23%

-50%

Social Security Medicare & Medicaid

Interest on the Debt

Defense

Children

All Outlays Not Categorized

42%

Source: The Urban Institute and The Brookings Institution, 2010. Authors' estimates based on data from the Budget of the U.S. Government Fiscal Year 2011 and previous years, CBO projections, and Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model projections. Note: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid excludes spending already captured as children's spending.

FIGURE 16 Share of the $1 Trillion in Additional Outlays from 2009 to 2020 Projected to Go to Children and Other Major Items in the Federal Budget

32

|

KIDS’ SHARE

100%

50%

74%

year of the projection period.As the national debt continues to grow, interest payments are projected to rise dramatically, more than doubling from 1.3 percent of GDP in 2009 to 3.2 percent in 2020.Under current policies,spending on interest payments on the debt will exceed spending on children be- tween 2014 and 2020,by larger and larger amounts each year.

As an additional comparison, consider the following breakdown: Between 2009 and 2020, total outlays are pro- jected to increase by $1.1 trillion. While these projections do not fully incorporate the additions and subtractions in outlays from health reform or any other legislation passed in the near future, they still provide a baseline by which to consider the path before us. Nearly three-quarters (74 per- cent) of the anticipated increases in federal spending will be

used for the automatic growth in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Growing interest payments on the national debt consume another two-fifths (42 percent). Together, the escalating costs of the three largest entitlements and interest payments will consume more than 100 percent of the anticipated growth in spending over the next 11 years, significantly squeezing other spending. In absence of re- form, many programs will be cut. While some of this cut will occur with the decline in emergency spending under TARP, much also involves a relative and sometimes absolute cutback in other government services.

These projections of continued current law and policy suggest that under the “no reform” scenario, children’s pro- grams will receive a mere 3 percent of the new funds, largely

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