growth rate in 2008, the continent’s GDP will fall to -4% in 2009. The high GDP growth rate of 8.8% in the petrol exporting countries will fall down to -4%. This is the direct result of the predicted fall in petrol earnings.
Economic growth - Prior to the crisis, the economic growth rates in Africa were among the highest in the world. However, IMF and AfDB have already brought down their forecast for 2009. The continent’s growth rate should fall from 5.4% in 2008 to 3.3% in 2009. According to AfDB, the provisional projections indicate a 3.7% loss in growth for petrol exporting countries in 2009 and 1% loss in growth for petrol importing countries. For the first time since 2000, the petrol importing countries’ growth rates should be higher (3.4%) than those of petrol exporting countries (2.9%).
A few examples: South Africa, Angola, Kenya, DRC, 1.8%, 6.3%, 2.1% and 1.7% of growth rates expected in 2009 compared to 5.1%, 21%, 6.3% and 6.5% growth rates recorded respectively by these countries in 2007.
The crisis is going to negatively affect the situation of public finances. The overall budget surplus of 1.8% of GDP recorded in Africa in 2008 will turn into a budget deficit of -5% in 2009. The petrol exporting countries’ GDP will fall down to -7% in 2009 compared to a budget surplus of 4% in 2008. The deficit will also get worse in petrol importing countries (from -1.7% to -2.1%).
After a while, the crisis should cause a fall in the flow of private capitals as far as the FDIs (Foreign Direct Investments) and remittances by migrants are concerned.
Direct and portfolio investments – According to the World Bank, the flows of private capitals meant for Africa have disappeared after rising from USD 30 billion in 2002 to USD 53 billion in 2007, causing projects to be cancelled, delayed or postponed. According to the AfDB, no foreign currency issue order has been made for the benefit of African countries in 2008. According to forecasts, investments will shrink in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. Kenya and Ghana had to postpone the issuance of bonds