Global Aluminum - Scrap Dynamics
US Dollar Weak: Weak $ reduces price on USA scrap in other currencies. Offset if ultimate product sale is based on $ LMEWill increase USA scrap demand if final sale in local f/x
China Factor:Central policy reducing profitability of smelters (energy)
Secondary development appears to be getting support
Infrastructure will be developed, but will lag demand
Inexpensive ocean freight from USA (trade surplus)
Commodity Funds: If funds artificially inflate LME, will scrap spreads artificially widen? Will scrap continue to follow fundamentals, while LME is driven by other factors?
Fundamentals:If N.A. primary production “loses” in global picture, will N.A. secondary market follow the same trend?Domestic consumption stable, scrap will be generated,logistics will keep significant % in domestic market.