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The photographs were taken by Dr. Erickson during a visit by the authors to the People’s Republic of China in early 2006.

The authors thank Dr. Lyle Goldstein, Cdr. Thomas Lang, USN, Cdr. Dan Monette, USN, Professor William Murray, Professor Robert Rubel, and Capt. Michael Sherlock, USN, for their incisive comments.

1. See, for example,

[Wang Zhenwen, edi-

tor], “‘ Minsk], (

” [The Legend of the [South China Sea

Publishing Company], 2002), p. 238. The works of such premier scholars as Tang Shiping of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) emphasize the need for China’s leaders to focus on resolving domestic problems and to “make positive advances while not rushing for- ward blindly . . . to seek a balance between prog- ress and prudence.” This would seem to problematize a rapid large-deck carrier pro-


[Tang Shiping], “2010–2015

[China’s Peripheral Security Environment in 2010–2015: Decisive Factors, Trends, and


[Strategy & Manage-

ment], no. 4 (2001), p. 37, Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) CPP20021017000169.

See also

[Tang Shiping], “

” [Reconsidering China’s Grand Strat-


[Strategy & Management],

no. 4, 2001.

  • 2.

    “Observation Post of the Military Situation” program, Feng Huang Wei Shih Chung Wen Tai [Phoenix Television], 15 March 2006, FBIS CPP20060317515025. Jianchuan Zhishi is a monthly publication of the Chinese Society of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering.

  • 3.

    [Zhao Wei],

[A Comprehensive Analysis of High- Speed Supercavitating Torpedo Technology], master’s dissertation, Harbin Engineering Uni- versity, 1 January 2001, p. 64.

  • 4.


  • 5.

    Authors’ interview, Beijing, June 2006.


[Wu Hongmin], “


” [The Dragon Swims the Five Seas:

New Ideas on China’s Naval Development], [Shipborne Weapons] (September 2005), p. 18.

7. Ibid.

8 . F o r s c h o l a r s h i p c o n c e r n i n g C h i n a s c a r r i e r d e -

velopment, see Ian Storey and You Ji, “China’s Aircraft Carrier Ambitions: Seeking Truth from Rumors,” Naval War College Review 57, no. 1 (Winter 2004), pp. 77–93. This article has been

translated into Chinese as Hongfei], “



” [Why Do the Chinese People Need, or Not Need, an Aircraft Carrier?— Foreign Experts Seek from Rumors to Clearly See the Truth about China’s Aircraft Carrier


[World Outlook], no. 16

(August 2004), pp. 16–21.

9. This is not to imply that the Chinese have across-the-board advantages in either submarine or mine warfare, especially compared to the U.S. Navy, but rather that focused investments in these warfighting specializations seem to prom- ise the highest rate of strategic return in the near term.


[Liu Huaqing],


Memoirs of Liu Huaqing] (Beijing: People’s Lib- eration Army, 2004), p. 481. All original quota- tions from Liu’s autobiography were checked against the wording in the FBIS translation of Chapters 16–20, CPP20060707320001001. Wording different from the FBIS translation is used whenever the authors felt that it better re- flected Liu’s meaning or would be more com- prehensible to the reader.

11. See Liu Huaqing, Memoirs of Liu Huaqing, p. 437; and Bernard D. Cole, The Great Wall at Sea: China’s Navy Enters the Twenty-first Century (Annapolis, Md.: Naval Institute Press, 2001),

pp. 165–68. 12. See “

” [Japanese

Warships Track Our Scientific Research Vessels], [World News Report], 17 May 2004, p. 24.

13. For a Chinese argument that the United States

cooperates with Japan militarily to contain

China, see

[The U.S.

Military’s Strong “Island Chain” Sentiment in

the Western Pacific],

[China Na-

tional Defense News], 29 June 2004; and “


” [The Samurai

Sword Is Out of Its Scabbard: The Hardening of

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