Draft Chapter for Strategic Intelligence
between the FBI and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), between FBI and the Department of Justice (DoJ), and between the Departments of State and Defense. Within the Department of Defense (DoD), the services have not only competed with one another, but actively conspired to fabricate and manipulate intelligence to exaggerate the threats relevant to their budget share. A corollary of this abysmal situation is that processing within the stovepipes has been focused on the delivery of documents rather than on making sense of all of the information in the aggregate. With the exception of selected efforts at the National Security Agency, the Army’s Intelligence and Security Command, and the U.S. Special Operations Command, virtually all civilian and military analysts are still in cut and paste mode, and do not have the tools for pattern or trend analysis or anomaly detection, much less predictive analysis.
In processing, it is machine speed translation and statistical analysis, based on standards and global distributed information integration, that permits early warning, anomaly detection, and structured analysis that can be completed in a timely—that is to say, relevant—manner. OSINT is where the real innovation is occurring, and I anticipate that within ten years, the secret world will be sharply restricted to no more than 20% of its present cost and size, while the balance of the funding is re-directed to a mix of OSINT that can be shared with anyone, and peaceful preventive measures in lieu of a heavy metal military.
Among the corrective measures required in secret processing, which OSINT will facilitate, are a shift toward the Internet as the common operating environment; the adoption of open source software to provide a generic access and collaborative sharing environment for all seven tribes;27 the development of 24/7 “plots” at every level of governance in which all
Version 2.4 dated 7 April 2006