Draft Chapter for Strategic Intelligence
Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information Sharing (M4IS).32 OSINT analysis will in the future be the benchmark by which classified sources and methods are judged to be relevant and cost-effective, or not. The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) has chosen to remain focused on secrets for the President. So be it. OSINT, from a private sector and non-governmental foundation, will capture all the other consumers of intelligence. The day will come when “clearances” are severely devalued and open source access—international open source access in all languages all the time—is ascendant. The DCI must serve all levels of the government, all seven tribes, and must balance between open and closed sources so as to inform decision-makers—and their publics—in order to preserve and enhance the long-term national security and prosperity of the USA. Secret sources and methods—and the existing military—have demonstrably failed in both regards.
Analytic tradecraft notes are available online and should be consulted.33 All-source analysts should not be hired until they have first proven themselves as masters of all open sources in all languages relevant to their domain and not be considered for mid-career hire unless they are one of the top 25 cited authorities in the field. They must know how to leverage their historian, their librarian, and the Internet. They must know how to identify and interact with the top 100 people in the world on their topic, regardless of citizenship or clearances. Finally, they must understand that they are—and must be trained to be—managers of customer relations and requirements definition; of open sources; of external experts; and of classified collection management. Analysts must know and practice the “new rules” for the new craft of intelligence, with specific reference to being able to actually do forecasting, establish strategic generalizations, and drill down to the neighborhood and tribal levels, not simply hover at the nation-state level.34
Version 2.4 dated 7 April 2006