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Draft Chapter for Strategic Intelligence

Strategic counterintelligence is completely distinct from tactical counterintelligence.37  In strategic counterintelligence, one is looking for emerging threats at the strategic level, not individual penetrations of specific organizations.  This is an area where OSINT should, but does not, shine.  The US Intelligence Community—and consequently the US policy community—have completely missed the end of cheap oil, the end of free water, the rise of Bin Laden and the rise of pandemic disease, even global warming, precisely because national counterintelligence was focused obsessively on penetrating foreign security services, and not on the strategic environment where natural and other threats of omission and commission were to be found.  There are three areas where strategic counterintelligence can benefit considerably from comprehensive OSINT, inclusive of the digitization and statistical analysis of all available historical information.

1.  National education.  Thomas Jefferson said that “A Nation’s best defense is an informed citizenry.”  This is absolutely correct, and even more so today, when central bureaucracies are no match for agile networked transnational groups.  The USA has failed to understand the strategic implications of its lack of border control, its mediocre educational system designed to create docile factory workers, and the trends toward obesity, insularity, and indifference that characterize the bulk of the population today.  We have gone hollow for lack of focus.

2.  Environment.  The Singapore military was stunned by the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), but unlike the U.S. military—they got it.  They realized they were responsible for defending Singapore against all threats, not just man-made or man-guided threats, and added national health and

Version 2.4 dated 7 April 2006

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